TNS poll has the Tories ahead whilst there appears to be progress on the debates

TNS poll has the Tories ahead whilst there appears to be progress on the debates

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Latest @TNS_UK poll out Con 33 (+5) Lab 32 (-3) LD 7 (+1) UKIP 17 (-1) Greens 4 (-3) http://t.co/6OZfbbWkwQ — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 17, 2015 It appears as though TNS big move from to CON one might be partly due to methodology change. No mention now weighting back to 2014 Euros — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 17, 2015   Meanwhile on the debates, there has been progress or has there? Looks like there is progress on the leaders' debates http://t.co/qtAs0UpXJr pic.twitter.com/rX544YhirR —…

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Latest Lord Ashcroft marginals polling brings bad news for the Tories

Latest Lord Ashcroft marginals polling brings bad news for the Tories

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The latest batch of Lord Ashcroft marginals polling is out, and will bring bring great cheer to Labour and much disappointment to the Tories, who would have hoped the national polling trends would feed into the marginals. Lord Ashcroft says My findings this time suggest the better national news for the Conservatives is not spread evenly across the battleground. In only one of the seats, Worcester, has a Labour lead turned into a Tory one. In Croydon Central, the Labour…

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It’s all very tight but the Tories seem to be doing better with the phone pollsters LAB with the online ones

It’s all very tight but the Tories seem to be doing better with the phone pollsters LAB with the online ones

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Or do the Tories do best when the fieldwork is mostly at the weekend? At the moment this close to an election with the numbers so tight it’s interesting to divide the pollsters by methodology to see if there’s a pattern In the chart above showing the Tory lead over LAB there is a clear division between the phone pollsters and the online ones. The former are giving the edge every do slightly to the blues while the latter it…

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The big GE15 gamble is trying to work out what all the polling means in terms of seats

The big GE15 gamble is trying to work out what all the polling means in terms of seats

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And on that there is no clear cut picture There is a huge divide both between academic groups and others like Martin Baxter’s long-standing Electoral Calculus. Frankly I find it hard to work this one out and I guess that whatever happens it will be a big surprise on the night. My long term GE15 bet has been CON ahead on votes – LAB ahead on seats. Reminder the PB pre May 7th gathering tomorrow. The Shooting Star from 7pm

The Monday afternoon rolling polls thread

The Monday afternoon rolling polls thread

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CON lead down from 4 to 2 with latest Ashcroft phone poll See details & trends from today's Ashcroft national poll pic.twitter.com/nTp4tRYByg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 16, 2015 CON lead down from 4 to 1 in the March ICM Guardian poll CON lead moves from 4 to 1 in latest ICM Guardian poll pic.twitter.com/BtRz62KD9e — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 16, 2015 So both the pollsters that had the biggest CON leads – ICM & Ashcroft with 4% – now…

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Take the 4-1 on the former Lord Mayor of London gaining Basildon South for UKIP

Take the 4-1 on the former Lord Mayor of London gaining Basildon South for UKIP

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Don’t be put off by the Ashcroft 6% CON lead One of the best UKIP constituency bets at the moment is the 4/1 that’s available from several bookies on UKIP winning South Basildon and East Thurrock. The candidate is Ian Luder, CBE, former Lord Mayor of London, ex-president of the Institute of Taxation, and advisor to government at the highest level. He’s also had a long record in local government with LAB and is a highly accomplished on the ground…

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Fewer voters have made up their mind on how to vote than in the past

Fewer voters have made up their mind on how to vote than in the past

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Whilst most voters think the debates will influence the way the vote Ipsos Mori have done some polling which asks how many voters have made up their mind on how to vote, and what will influence the way they will vote. The fieldwork for the polling was early to mid February, so well before the recent contretemps over the debates. So David Cameron’s non appearance in the debates could fundamentally damage the Tories as we can see from the above…

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Nigel Farage’s offer to support a minority Conservative Government is a 2015 referendum

Nigel Farage’s offer to support a minority Conservative Government is a 2015 referendum

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As part of Nigel Farage’s book being serialised in the Telegraph, The UK Independence Party leader says that he is willing to make a deal with the Tories on the condition that they hold an EU referendum before Christmas. The detailed plans for a hung parliament set out that Ukip and Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party would work together to support the Conservatives on a vote by vote basis. Ukip – forecast to gain up to six seats in the…

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