Ladbrokes have this market on whether a vote of no confidence will be triggered in Rishi Sunak this year. For one to be triggered 15% of Tory MPs need to send a letter to the chairman of the 1922 committee requesting such a vote. I cannot see a trigger event or events during the rest of the year that will see that threshold breached. So far in 2023 we’ve seen a plethora of record breaking by election defeats for Sunak,…
Whilst the policy my might be popular in the wider context of the economy and a cost of living crisis I suspect it won’t move many votes. TSE
Next year’s White House Race will be the sixth to be covered since PB was founded in 2004. But there will be one big difference and that is the order in which states hold their primaries. We are all used to the Iowa caucuses being the first State to divide with the first proper primary being in New Hampshire. This time the Democratic party have been seeking to make the elections take place in it different order although the Republicans…
Like many I thought Sunak would hold the election in October/November 2024 but I am now leaning towards an election held next May, there’s a few advantages for holding it then. Using the budget as tax cutting launchpad for the election campaign. Avoids having an election taking place with the energy prices dominating the agenda during the colder months. It isn’t difficult to imagine OFGEM increasing the price cap next October. An autumn election would see Labour highlighting the second…
As George W. Bush said ‘You can fool some of the people all the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on.’ TSE
What a time to be alive, never did I think I would be doing a thread header on whether the Home Secretary called a town a shithole. I cannot see any next cabinet minister to leave/Cleverly exit date markets but if there were I suspect I’d be backing Cleverly to survive this story. In politics perceptions sometimes matter than the facts and this will cement the belief that the Tories are full of arrogant out of touch elitists even if…
I really want to know who shot JFK. The magic bullet theory is utter mince, anybody who believes that really shouldn’t have the vote, or leave the house alone. TSE
A lot politically is resting on today’s budget This is almost certainly the last budget before the general election and Hunt needs to get some good headlines on the way his proposals will impact on voters. This is always a tough one and LAB will be working hard this afternoon to find the negative messages. Remember the “Dementia Tax” not long ago. Just getting some LAB leads down to single figures would be a big boost for the Tories. The…