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This general election has thrown up things that I never expected to write. On election day I wasn’t expecting to write about Labour polling below the 36.1% David Cameron’s Tories received in 2010 but this is now a real possibility as this Ipsos poll isn’t an outlier. If Rishi Sunak hadn’t run a terrible campaign we might have actually had a hung parliament. But the share of the vote doesn’t really matter, it’s all about net gains and bums on…

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As we all await the bong at 10:00 PM, I’ve prepped up a few spreadsheets that will try and sort the wheat from the chaff. Sheet 1 This is the most important, and should collate the early results, click here At about 2:30, move onto sheet 2 The final sheet is here Right now these this has every constituency, and is the most likely to fall over. The first two sheets are attempting to do less so with a fair…

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If the polls are wrong I suspect this will be one of the main reasons, turnout will not match what the voters tell the pollsters on their propensity to vote. Differential turnout could be the difference between an extinction level event for the Tories and a 1997 redux. TSE

All the MRPs show the Tories walloped worse than 1997. The most striking thing from the MRPs is the YouGov one showing Labour’s getting majority wider throughout the year, so much for swingback. Perhaps Rishi Sunak calling an early election was a masterstroke as the Tories might have ended up with 20 MPs in a November election if that YouGov trend continued although I think Rishi Sunak will be full of regret of how badly he has campaigned. When it…

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The latest betting odds on Richmond & Northallerton but if Sunak loses his seat then we are looking at a truly epochal election result. TSE

TSE

I have said for a while that I wouldn’t be surprised if the SNP does better than expected. Support for independence hovers around the 50% mark and if those supporters want their priority to be independence then the SNP is the best vehicle for achieving secession. My belief is that Sunak’s supermajority might end up damaging Labour but having no real benefit for the Tories as it might allow left leaning voters to vote SNP/Green/Lib Dem without risking getting the…

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Laying the favourite for the Tory leadership is usually a profitable strategy but the reasons why Kemi Badenoch might not win is quite surreal, I suspect she will go postal if she is effectively barred. The Times reports Kemi Badenoch may be unable to stand in a future Conservative leadership contest because of delays in sending out postal votes in her constituency. Dozens of councils have implemented emergency measures such as delivering postal votes by hand after complaints that ballot…

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