LAB draws level with CON in this week’s Ashcroft phone poll – so another pollster fails to record a budget bounce

LAB draws level with CON in this week’s Ashcroft phone poll – so another pollster fails to record a budget bounce

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This week's @LordAshcroft phone poll has CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 23, 2015 More detailed findings from @LordAshcroft poll pic.twitter.com/NrvOvXnXCv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 23, 2015 Before Xmas @LordAshcroft national poll had UKIP on 19%. Today just 12%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 23, 2015 @LordAshcroft poll ENGLAND ONLY shares CON 36 LAB 33 LD 8 UKIP 14 GN 6 So a 4.7% CON to LAB swing since GE10 on UNS = 50 LAB English gains…

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When computing most seats remember that every LAB gain from CON is worth double every LAB loss to the SNP

When computing most seats remember that every LAB gain from CON is worth double every LAB loss to the SNP

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It’s all a question of simple mathematics So if LAB lost all 41 of its Scottish seats it would need a further 21 gains from CON to offset them in the race to see which party has most MPs. Quite simply a LAB gain from CON increase the red total by and decreases the blue one. A loss to the SNP simply reduces the LAB overall number.

Yesterday’s interviews could prove to have been Alex Salmond’s Sheffield rally moment

Yesterday’s interviews could prove to have been Alex Salmond’s Sheffield rally moment

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Presumption , as Neil Kinnock will tell you, doesn’t go down well Those of us who are old enough remember the great Labour Sheffield rally before the 1992 General Election which came over in the media as a celebration of the victory that the party presumed was going to happen the following Thursday. It got widespread coverage and on the day John Major’s Tories totally defied all polling and were returned with a 7%+ more of the national votes and…

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The voters’ verdict on the impact of the budget

The voters’ verdict on the impact of the budget

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Given the polling before the budget, the Tories might feel disappointed that the budget didn’t get more of a thumbs up from the electorate, there’s probably only one or two game changers left for the Tories, one of them is the debates, but according to reports, Ed has been preparing for a while, Dave has not. The full YouGov data tables are available here. TSE

So the debates are happening

So the debates are happening

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The first event is four days away. Yesterday it was confirmed that we would have the debates and the format of said debates, they are as follows 26th March: Live question and answer programme on Channel 4 and Sky News featuring David Cameron and Ed Miliband, presented by Jeremy Paxman and Kay Burley 2nd April: Debate with the following party leaders David Cameron, Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband, Nigel Farage, Natalie Bennett, Nicola Sturgeon and Leanne Wood on ITV, moderated by Julie Etchingham…

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The Saturday night rolling polling thread

The Saturday night rolling polling thread

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LAB 2% ahead in latest YouGov poll for S Times — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 21, 2015 It’s no change with Survation for Mail on Sunday CON 30%+1 LAB 34%+1 LD 10%= UKIP 17%-2 SNP 4%= GRE 3%+1 A leaders’ question that’s unique: Agincourt with impending 600th anniversay Budget boost for Tories from Opinium/Observer poll Revised trend chart from Opinium pic.twitter.com/qh2DnGguHm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 21, 2015 @tobyhelm given design effects and margin of error i'd want to see…

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The great national – constituency betting divide

The great national – constituency betting divide

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Via @FPP2015 pic.twitter.com/iquqRshxVU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 21, 2015 Is this heart over head and if so which is which? This has been observed on PB before – the great divide between the individual constituency betting markets and the overall GE15 most seats. As can be seen above there’s now a 30-30 CON-LAB split on the national most seats betting but with the single seats LAB has small lead. My guess is that many constituency bets are placed on…

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Sturgeon’s game-plan? Replace LAB with CON by replacing CON with LAB

Sturgeon’s game-plan? Replace LAB with CON by replacing CON with LAB

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Can the SNP push Labour into third in 2016? It’s been said that the creation of New Labour was indirectly Margaret Thatcher’s greatest achievement; that her government remodelled the whole political landscape so much that many of her policies were continued and developed not just by her own Conservative successor as PM but by the Labour one following him too. As with all these things, there’s an overly-deterministic element to such reasoning (had John Smith lived, his leadership would have…

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