If teachers are as hostile to the Tories as they were 16 months ago that could have a huge impact on May 7th

If teachers are as hostile to the Tories as they were 16 months ago that could have a huge impact on May 7th

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At almost exactly this point before GE2010 YouGov had CON ahead with teachers In December 2013 that had become a 41% LAB lead It was said in July that this was why Lynton was behind the Gove sacking During one of the breaks at the big LSE GE forecasting conference on Friday I was asked for suggestions of ideas for interesting polling that could tell us more than what we see in standard surveys or constituency polling. After pondering this…

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Big boost for the Tories in tonight’s ComRes phone poll

Big boost for the Tories in tonight’s ComRes phone poll

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RT @tom_ComRes: Con lead by 4 points as Miliband sees no Paxo bounce – our new poll for @itvnews / @DailyMailUK pic.twitter.com/pTp9GCS0Ty — Andrew Hawkins (@Andrew_ComRes) March 29, 2015 Around twice as many Britons think Cameron is "strong" & "good on TV" compared to Miliband – @dailymailUK / @itvnews pic.twitter.com/QqGONGARKF — Tom Mludzinski (@tom_ComRes) March 29, 2015 Best PM from ComRes phone poll for Mail. Not good for Ed pic.twitter.com/NVsV3kQNx8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 29, 2015 Confused about the…

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Leanne Wood could be the 2015 Nick Clegg and at 50-1 might be a good punt to win Thursday’s debate

Leanne Wood could be the 2015 Nick Clegg and at 50-1 might be a good punt to win Thursday’s debate

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She has the benefit of not being much known outside Wales Just had a punt with Ladbrokes at 50/1 that Plaid leader, Leanne Wood, will top the quickie polls after Thursday night’s seven-sided debate. She’ll be fresh to a full national audience, has a pleasant manner, and handles herself well on TV. She’ll also attract less of the hostility that some of the others on the platform are likely to attract. The rules ensure that she should get equal time…

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The voting intentions of those who watched Thursday’s programme and those that didn’t

The voting intentions of those who watched Thursday’s programme and those that didn’t

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Lab has 19% lead with who watched on Thurs. 12% Lab lead with who watched some/clips. Con 6% ahead with non viewers pic.twitter.com/cVUJjdXYp3 — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 29, 2015 Nearly 20% of the YouGov respondents watched Thursday’s programme, whereas around only 5% of the public actually watched the programme so this might be what may be somewhat over amplifying Ed’s performance and the Labour lead. What does indicate that is a good poll for Labour and Ed is the relative improvement…

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Tonight’s YouGov has LAB taking 4% lead and Ed getting ratings boost

Tonight’s YouGov has LAB taking 4% lead and Ed getting ratings boost

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How the S Times is reporting its YouGov poll. pic.twitter.com/9f4j4iMQ6L — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 28, 2015 LAB takes 4% lead with YouGov in poll all taken after Thurs TV programme LAB 36% Con 32% LD 8% Ukip 13% Green 6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 28, 2015 Big lift in Miliband’s personal ratings. Best PM 23%, up 4% in a week. (Cameron 35%). Miliband personal rating -28%. Early march it was -48% — Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) March 28, 2015 YouGov poll finds those who…

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Get ready folks for an election to remember….!

Get ready folks for an election to remember….!

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The Intellectually stimulating campaign begins LAB protesters @ CON Launch CON ones @ LAB launch Via @PoliticalPics pic.twitter.com/ktUELzqgsM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 28, 2015 We should get the first full post debate polls tonight My guess is that the campaigning won’t start in earnest until after Easter and it will only be after then that most people will start to take notice. The final fortnight is, as you’d expect the most intensive. One thing we know is that this will be the…

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By accident or design, the election’s got a debate series that could work

By accident or design, the election’s got a debate series that could work

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Multiple structures will probe the parties & leaders In a little over nine months’ time, the US presidential hopefuls will be campaigning hard in the then snow-bound small rural state of Iowa, the first in a long process of state-wide elections that will ultimately determine the two parties’ nominations. That process has evolved over the years, partly organically, partly by design but the main reason there’s been little wholesale reform in the schedule, despite offerings to that end being put…

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Predicting the election: What the leading academic teams are saying

Predicting the election: What the leading academic teams are saying

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Five years ago PBers described the 2010 event as wank fest We got a name check from YouGov polling head Jo Twyman, at the opening of today’s conference at the LSE when different academic groups made their predictions. He recalled that on the thread in 2010 this gathering was described as a wankfest which got a good response. What’s happening is that separate forecasting groups are presenting their findings and explaining how their approaches. The table above shows the main…

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