Debate day – some facts and figures

Debate day – some facts and figures

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Like the first debate in 2010 the location is Manchester. This time at Media City Salford Quays pic.twitter.com/EQmo5pR9kO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2015 Interesting from @BBCNewsGraphics. Where the close races are. pic.twitter.com/TBu11ZfTz9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2015 LAB retakes lead with Populus Lab. 34 (-), Con 32 (-2), LD 9 (+1), UKIP 15 (-), GN 5 (+1), — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2015 ENGLAND+WALES shares today's Populus onlineCON 33.7LAB 34.5LD 9.1UKIP 16.5This = CON to…

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The other story from the latest Ashcroft marginals’ polling – the sharp decline of UKIP

The other story from the latest Ashcroft marginals’ polling – the sharp decline of UKIP

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Like the GE10 LDs UKIP will be squeezed in the big party fights Apart from the problems facing Nick Clegg and the latest on the CON-LD battles a striking feature of the latest wave of Ashcroft seat polling was the decline of UKIP. These are all constituency fights where, with perhaps one possible exception, UKIP was not a contender and what happens – in every single case the purples see a sharpish reduction in their share. The biggest slippage of…

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David Herdson: The March PB Polling Average: it’s still neck-and-neck and Harry Hayfield’s by election preview

David Herdson: The March PB Polling Average: it’s still neck-and-neck and Harry Hayfield’s by election preview

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The squeeze is on the smaller players That cloud looks like a tree. Or a bird. Or a flower. It’s human nature to see patterns in chaos and further, to try to rationalise and explain those patterns. Hence earthquakes are still archaically ‘acts of God’. Hence also the interpretation of the four point Labour lead in the YouGov poll published after the Cameron-Miliband interviews and Q&A as a Miliband ‘win’. Given that YouGov routinely publish over 20 polls a month,…

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Tomorrow night is Nigel Farage’s big opportunity

Tomorrow night is Nigel Farage’s big opportunity

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Farage’s ratings for a third party leader are pretty poor With the seven way debate upon us shortly, I was trying to see the circumstances that led to the Cleggasm in April 2010. Using the Ipsos-Mori leader satisfaction ratings as a proxy,  we can see how Nigel Farage’s net ratings compare to Clegg in March 2010. Then in April 2010 the public for a short time, ended up liking someone they already liked a bit more. Given that that Farage…

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Lord Ashcroft finds Clegg in trouble in Sheffield Hallam but the LDs holding as well can be expected elsewhere

Lord Ashcroft finds Clegg in trouble in Sheffield Hallam but the LDs holding as well can be expected elsewhere

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At this stage not naming the candidates becomes a defect Ashcroft detail from Sheffield Hallam where Clegg in troubleLAB GAIN pic.twitter.com/P9zLFxGFmc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 1, 2015 Ashcroft CambridgeLD HOLD 9% lead over LAB pic.twitter.com/Q1IZYGRLyo — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 1, 2015 Ashcroft TorbayLD HOLD pic.twitter.com/PhiaZWLZFW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 1, 2015 Ashcroft St IvesLD HOLD pic.twitter.com/47YM6WLD7f — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 1, 2015 Ashcroft St Austell & NewquayCON GAIN pic.twitter.com/D8dVRAa917 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 1, 2015…

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Boost for the Tories as the economy once again becomes the top issue

Boost for the Tories as the economy once again becomes the top issue

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Good for CON. Economy moves to top slot in YouGov's issues trackers – those facing the country and you/your family pic.twitter.com/BLiBpch67N — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 1, 2015 A good start for the Crosby campaign The numbers in the YouGov issues trackers tables say it all. Big jumps for the economy to top slot as top issue facing the country and you/your family. This suggests that the opening salvoes of the campaign from Cameron and Co are the ones hitting…

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LAB regains YouGov lead and Newsnight index has gap down to 2 seats

LAB regains YouGov lead and Newsnight index has gap down to 2 seats

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After last night level pegging LAB lead by one: CON 35%, LAB 36%, LD 7%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 31, 2015 @BBCNewsnight 's latest GE15 index pic.twitter.com/WeaN1h1LIT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 31, 2015 My guess is that the Newsnight change is largely down to the new ComRes Scotland poll which is a tad more positive for LAB than other surveys.

Labour’s London progress could be masking a bigger trend: the party’s putting on most support where it doesn’t need it

Labour’s London progress could be masking a bigger trend: the party’s putting on most support where it doesn’t need it

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CON up 2 in London YouGov poll, LAB & LD up 1 – UKIP & GRN both down pic.twitter.com/l7YNd4Qi18 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 31, 2015 The latest spate of London polls has been very positive for Labour with vote shares in the capital up 9% or more on 2010. It really does look as though the party is going to do very well there. The only problem is that there aren’t that many CON targets apart from Hendon, Brentford…

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