Big hope for the Tories: Labour’s cack-handed campaigning will alienate 2010 LD switchers and tacticals

Big hope for the Tories: Labour’s cack-handed campaigning will alienate 2010 LD switchers and tacticals

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LAB could have made this even less appealing to potential LD switchers with pics of Blunkett & Straw pic.twitter.com/cl7FIxKMW3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 4, 2015 This is electorally illiterate The only chance that LAB has on May 7th is by keeping on board the 2010 LD switchers who’ve moved since last time and winning support of yellow tactical voters in the marginals. Labour’s polling position has been buttressed by the ex-LDs for the past four years. The good news…

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David Herdson says Ed won the debate because Clegg and Bennett didn’t

David Herdson says Ed won the debate because Clegg and Bennett didn’t

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NIGHTMARE! Ed Miliband as PM, propped up by Alex Salmond ‘calling the tune’ if Labour gets into Downing Street pic.twitter.com/uNFHs5deTo — Grant Shapps (@grantshapps) March 9, 2015 Why for Dave the strong Sturgeon performance was a sideshow Earlier this campaign, the Conservatives unveiled the above poster showing Ed Miliband in Alex Salmond’s pocket; the inference being that in a hung parliament it would be the SNP pulling Labour’s strings. Nicola Sturgeon’s very capable handling of Thursday’s debate did nothing to…

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In first post-debate poll Survation finds LAB 2% ahead and EdM getting positive approval numbers for first time

In first post-debate poll Survation finds LAB 2% ahead and EdM getting positive approval numbers for first time

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Approval ratings for last night’s participants Although the voting numbers don’t have much change the leader approval numbers could provide good pointers. Of the seven who took part last night only Clegg had negative ratings. Mike Smithson For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB

The debate: The post mortem continues

The debate: The post mortem continues

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The notion that betting’s a good pointer to political outcomes got thwacked last night One of the things I keep on getting asked is whether betting markets are good pointer to political outcomes. Well last night we might have had an answer. Right throughout the event and on the Betfair exchange the money was going on Nigel Farage who became a very tight odds-on favourite. This is what Ladbrokes Shadsy writes on his blog:- “..on the YouGov poll that Ladbrokes…

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Chaos or competence is a good slogan for Tories but Ed’s not going to be a push-over

Chaos or competence is a good slogan for Tories but Ed’s not going to be a push-over

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Overall none of the seven did themselves harm As a general rule you have to wait a few days before you can draw firm conclusions about the impact of high profile event like TV debates. We had four instant polls and four different winners. I’ve yet to study the detail but it was odd that the bookies’ favourite firm, YouGov, produced a different polling outcome from the others. Having had a spread bet of Sturgeon with SPIN that was no…

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So who won?

So who won?

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UPDATE Sturgeon wins with YouGov ComRes #leadersdebate poll: 21% favoured Cameron 21% Miliband 21% Farage 20% Sturgeon 9% Clegg 5% Bennett 2% Wood http://t.co/jsd8Jb1lYA — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) April 2, 2015 Debate Result: Sturgeon wins Cameron: 18% Miliband: 15% Clegg: 10% Farage: 20% Bennett: 5% Sturgeon: 28% Wood: 4% 1117 GB adults — YouGov (@YouGov) April 2, 2015 ICM makes it Miliband Guardian/ICM #leadersdebate poll: 25% Miliband 24% Cameron 19% Farage 17% Sturgeon 9% Clegg 3% Bennett 2% Wood Wow. Tories move to 37% in tonight's YouGov voting poll CON 37%,…

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To start big debate night Marf gives her take….

To start big debate night Marf gives her take….

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And another GE15 poll – this time from Panelbase New Panelbase GB poll has CON & LAB level pegging for 2nd week in a row CON 33% LAB 33% UKIP 17% LD 7% GRN 5% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2015 More @LordAshcroft marginals polling to be published next week. My guess is that he'll be back with the CON-LAB battlegrounds — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2015 Debate starts pic.twitter.com/Z2xIBLTBg8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2015 The…

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