There’s still a huge gap facing the Tories in England and Wales where almost all the key LAB-CON battlegrounds are
In terms of overall seat numbers:
Labour’s hoping that taking on the non doms could be a narrative changer
The Guardian's front page lead on Labour's plans for non doms http://t.co/Ge1YtTRuHI pic.twitter.com/NTa2bcMjvR — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 8, 2015 The first big policy development of the campaign Today’s announcement by Miliband that if they win power they’d end the special tax status of non-doms is the first genuine policy surprise of the campaign and could be quite a tricky one for Cameron/Osborne to respond to. For the perception that the blues are on the side of the rich and…
Tonight’s Scottish debate was superb – the question now is whether it will change votes
With what happens in Scotland likely to play a big part in the May 7th outcome the big event tonight was the STV Scottish leaders’ debate. It was powerful and passionate and on a totally different level from the sterile event last Thursday. The clip above is one of the better bits. For Jim Murphy this was a massive night and I thought he did well -though at times might have been too aggressive. Nicola Sturgeon found the going much…
If uniform swing still has some validity then LAB is holding up reasonably well – but does it?
From the polling in the first week of the official campaign it is hard to draw any conclusions. See Wiki list pic.twitter.com/kjoEbkEFjs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 7, 2015 Projecting seats numbers: Bottom up or top down? The Easter holidays are over. Now it gets serious. Will one of the main parties end the stalemate and draw clear across a range of pollsters? Hard to say. All the post-debate polling has shown LAB on the same 33%. What has differed…
Cameron’s view of UKIP voters effectively being just “Tories on holiday” not supported by polling
Nearly 70% didn’t vote Blue in 2010 The Telegraph is leading on a big interview it has with Cameron during which the CON leader made a special appeal to UKIP voters. The report notes:- “In an interview with The Telegraph, the Prime Minister insisted that he has heard the message of frustrated Tory voters “loud and clear†but is now appealing to them to help him “avert the danger of a Labour governmentâ€.With one month until the polls open, Mr…
Hallam and Thanet South – the most interesting constituency fights in generations
All the published Thanet South polls pic.twitter.com/oILe6nAltf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 6, 2015 Sheffield Hallam: All published constituency polls since GE2010 pic.twitter.com/fkYupswmPD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 6, 2015
Easter Monday afternoon polling round-up
Latest YouGov Scotland poll. Independence Q: Yes 46% No 48% DK/WNV 6% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 6, 2015 Last 2 YouGov Scottish independence polls have have had NO in lead. 8 weeks ago YES led by 5% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 6, 2015 Pre-debate YouGov Scotland poll just publishedSNP 46% (nc) Lab 29% (+2) Con 16% (-2) LD 3% (-1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 6, 2015 At GE10 YouGov didn't have a poll on Easter Monday –…
Just over a week to go before voting starts
For about a fifth of voters the campaign is nearly over You might have thought that there’s more than a month to go in this election but early next week the first postal voting packs will be going out and people will start voting in GE2015. The actual day that the postals will be dispatched varies from one council area to another. Generally those where the general election is the only one which is taking place on May 7th will…