The general election now the UK’s number one story

The general election now the UK’s number one story

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Top Ten Most Noticed news stories this week #TTMN | General Election, for the first time, most noticed news this week pic.twitter.com/gOjYBYoDgm — Populus (@PopulusPolls) April 10, 2015 I do like this weekly Tweet from Populus which can put a lot of things into context. Too often those deeply immersed in politics tend to overstate importance of what seem to them to be major developments to the outside world. This brings it down to earth. At the moment the reference…

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My favourite GE15 spread bet: That there’ll be a CON margin on seats of fewer than 12

My favourite GE15 spread bet: That there’ll be a CON margin on seats of fewer than 12

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Betting sentiment remains solidly with CON double digit seat margin The chart shows the trend on the Sporting Index commons seats spread market over the past few months and as can be seen the Tories have opened a double digit lead which has remained for some weeks. Even yesterday’s poor polls for the Tories did not have much impact. As well as the straight total seats betting as seen above there’s another market I like – CON supremacy over LAB….

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The final polls of the day make it rather a mixed picture for LAB

The final polls of the day make it rather a mixed picture for LAB

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After last week's 4% CON lead tonight's ComRes/Mail phone poll hasCon 34% (-2)Lab 33% (+1)Lib Dem 12% (+3)UKIP 12% (NC) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 9, 2015 ComRes chart with latest phone poll showing CON lead down by 3 pic.twitter.com/EeeoooP9cP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 9, 2015 YouGov/Sun poll has CON back in leadCON 35 (+1)LAB 34 (-1)LD 8 (=)UKIP 12 (-1)GRN 4 (-1)So only GB poll to have LAB position down. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 9, 2015

The Tories move to win the elder brothers’ vote – a wise move?

The Tories move to win the elder brothers’ vote – a wise move?

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Tim Montgomerie has got this right Embarrassing: Way too personal from Michael Fallon against Ed Miliband via @SamCoatesTimes pic.twitter.com/wU64AVMvCD — Tim Montgomerie ?? (@montie) April 8, 2015 Some good numbers from TNS for LAB Boost for LAB from TNSLAB 33% (+1) CON 30% (-3) LD 8% (0) UKIP 19% (+3) GREEN 4% (-1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 9, 2015

At this stage in the marginals having enough volunteer footsoldiers on the ground matters most

At this stage in the marginals having enough volunteer footsoldiers on the ground matters most

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Signs from the @LordAshcroft seat polling on level of party contact that LAB running more intensive ground war pic.twitter.com/88OvE6GaaE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 8, 2015 Campaign spending limits restrict delivery options We are now in what is legally termed the “short campaign” when the amount of money that can be spent by each candidate is strictly laid down. The maximum is £8,700 + 6p or 9p per elector depending on whether it is borough or county constituency. So in…

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Th non-doms – Marf gives her take

Th non-doms – Marf gives her take

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There’s an excellent piece by John Rentoul on the issue here. The heading says it all:- “Non-doms: If Osborne was on the ball he would not be left defending a tax perk for the rich. The stupidity of his response is matched only by its laziness. He writes:- “.. the Tories defined themselves as the defenders of global tax avoiders. The stupidity of Osborne’s response is matched only by its laziness. The Conservatives do not seem to realise that there…

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This afternoon’s batch of Ashcroft marginals polling has the battle for most seats on knife edge

This afternoon’s batch of Ashcroft marginals polling has the battle for most seats on knife edge

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OPne new LAB gains found or no CON holds found We’ve just got the latest round of Ashcroft marginals polling where all the fieldwork was between March 30th and April 4th. So all very up to date. The details of the seats included are set out below. As can be seen there are no changes on previous Ashcroft polls in the seats. The battle is very very tight. @LordAshcroft Blackpool N CON hold pic.twitter.com/gkSBnMPxZr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 8,…

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