So were there really shy Kippers?

So were there really shy Kippers?

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Prior to the election, there was speculation, the pollsters weren’t picking up “Shy Kippers”. Though every single phone poll underestimated UKIP, it was within an acceptable amount, and the largest errors were from the online polls from Panelbase and Survation, who overestimated UKIP by 3%. The polls that underestimated UKIP, on average, underestimated UKIP by 1.6%, and the polls that overestimated, did so on average by 1.9%. The online pollsters overestimated UKIP by 0.8% and the phone underestimated UKIP by 1.7%….

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Our GE15 prediction competition: results + chart showing CON leads % -/+ recorded in final polls

Our GE15 prediction competition: results + chart showing CON leads % -/+ recorded in final polls

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Full chart with all entries here Sporting Index, which is sponsoring PB’s General Election coverage, is providing a competition prize of £200, payable into the winner’s SPIN account. If the winner does not have an account then he/she will have to open one to receive the prize. This is only open to people over the age of 18. In the next few days the firm will have a bigger range of GE2015 markets up. On top of that there will…

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Only divorce can save the Union

Only divorce can save the Union

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It is time to set the Scottish parties free Unprecedented is not what it used to be. The splintering of the party system and the increasing willingness of voters to shop around means that the previously extraordinary has become rather routine. To take one example, prior to this week, in no election since 1918 had more than three parties polled over a million votes each*; this year, six did so. But nowhere was the scale of the unprecedented more obvious…

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Ex-ICM boss & political polling pioneer, Nick Sparrow, on the 2015 polling “debacle”

Ex-ICM boss & political polling pioneer, Nick Sparrow, on the 2015 polling “debacle”

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For the Pollsters, it’s 1992 all over again. The pollsters agreed, it was too close to call, a hung parliament a near certainty. There were even signs in some polls of a swing to Labour over the last few hours and days. Ed looked increasingly confident, Dave a bit dejected. The pollsters polled as late as possible to catch late swing. YouGov re-contacted their final poll sample and found no reason to change their prediction. Overall the pollsters predicted the…

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And let’s not forget the pollsters and the polls

And let’s not forget the pollsters and the polls

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CON final GB margin over LAB 6.6%Best pollster had 1% lead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2015 How Survation chickened out of publishing poll that was almost spot on using ballot form prompthttp://t.co/aQNIRRRecu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2015 Will @YouGov be continuing with the daily poll? — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2015 RT @StephanShaxper A terrible night for us pollsters. I apologise for a poor performance. We need to find out why. — YouGov (@YouGov) May…

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And so now we turn to leader resignations triggering off 3 leadership contests

And so now we turn to leader resignations triggering off 3 leadership contests

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Ed makes it all three pic.twitter.com/jYTApArKfm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2015 Clegg confirms pic.twitter.com/TZJf15EFoJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2015 A problem for the LDs is that there are only eight MPs to choose from. Front runner must be Tim Farron and my guess is that he compete against the North Norfolk MP, Norman Lamb. Mixed message from Farage in his resignation speech Farage resigns but hints that he might stand again pic.twitter.com/5g3ebQV9YC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)…

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GE2015: Many congratulations to those who called it right

GE2015: Many congratulations to those who called it right

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Before we start looking at coming party leadership contests and the polling for the general election let’s first offer our congratulations to those who called it right. On PB there was JackW who has triumphed once again nd I’ve sent him a personal message. I’ve also exchanged emails already with Oxford’s Stephen Fisher whose ElectionsEtc has been taking a view on the bias in the polls for which he and his team have been totally vindicated. Stephen is one of…

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