Post election “how did you vote” poll finds it was the oldies and men what won it for Dave

Post election “how did you vote” poll finds it was the oldies and men what won it for Dave

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Post election poll by GQR, LAB's pollster, for the TUC pic.twitter.com/UmlhhEVVt5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2015 GQR's post GE15 poll finds that CON had just about twice as many 55+ voters as LAB pic.twitter.com/8dNJ94yauf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2015 GQR, Labour’s pollster, has just published a post May 7th survey it carried out for the TUC asking people how they voted. The main findings are above and show a big lead for CON amongst men and…

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It will be of little comfort to the yellows but GE15 proved to be a great example of the power of first time incumbency

It will be of little comfort to the yellows but GE15 proved to be a great example of the power of first time incumbency

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Tim Smith Univ of Nottingham The vote shares of first time incumbents held up the most A short paper headed “Lib Dem incumbency advantage persists but fails to prevent disaster” by Tim Smith of the University of Nottingham has just been published and provides valuable evidence of the power of first time incumbency. This happens when someone who won for the first time at the previous elections seeks to defend the seat. The table above shows the very different performances…

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Given the messages that have been coming out PaddyPower’s 7/4 2016 EU referendum price looks like a good bet

Given the messages that have been coming out PaddyPower’s 7/4 2016 EU referendum price looks like a good bet

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All the signs are that the new Tory government wants to move fast with the EU referendum. We should get an idea on the timing in the upcoming Queen’s Speech. 2016 seems to make a lot of sense. It coincides with devolved parliament elections in Scotland and Wales as well as the next London Mayoral election – all areas of the UK where support for staying in is generally higher than elsewhere. It also will get the issue out of…

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Searching for a parallel to 2015

Searching for a parallel to 2015

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Parallels from the past can never be as neat as those proposing them might like to hope. For starters, any modern comparison for 2015 could never do justice to the SNP’s triumph, and what happens in Scotland over the next five years could dramatically change the Parliamentary arithmetic in 2020. Regardless, let’s see what we can come up with, focussing on the two main parties. 1992 is a very tempting parallel, and probably the one that offers Labour the most…

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Burnham’s nomination surge could block out other LAB leadership contenders

Burnham’s nomination surge could block out other LAB leadership contenders

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Unlike 2010 the unions are most influential at the start of the race We all remember how the big unions were able to influence the 2010 leadership race by sending out to political levy paying members ballot packs like the one above. This time the rules have changed and the opportunity to influence is most strong at the nomination stage. Shadow health sec, Andy Burnham, is doing particularly well winning the support of fellow MPs who are prepared to nominate…

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UKIP becomes a one-man band once again – another extraordinary day in the life of Farage’s party

UKIP becomes a one-man band once again – another extraordinary day in the life of Farage’s party

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Labour fired their leader after the election. Lib Dems fired their leader after the election. And UKIP are firing everyone but their leader. — Oliver Cooper (@OliverCooper) May 19, 2015 Former key allies Patrick O'Flynn and Suzanne Evans both lose their jobs in a 12 hour period as Nigel Farage exerts his authority at @UKIP. — Christopher Hope? (@christopherhope) May 19, 2015 Public repentance by spokesmen, advisers culled, personality cults, key ideologues purged, Ukip now more mysterious than N Korea….

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A guest slot by Lucian on the Northern Ireland dimension – the re-emergence of the UUP

A guest slot by Lucian on the Northern Ireland dimension – the re-emergence of the UUP

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BBC News Northern Ireland summary Now the focus is on next year’s Assembly elections There is little doubt that the UUP will regard the general election as a success. They had no seats, they now have two. Fermanagh and South Tyrone was won by Tom Elliott after a deal was struck with the DUP and other unionist parties. South Antrim was taken from the DUP’s William McCrea by Danny Kinahan. So the party has removed the horror of not having…

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Pollsters should follow Ipsos MORI’s 2008 example and not rush to resume general election surveys

Pollsters should follow Ipsos MORI’s 2008 example and not rush to resume general election surveys

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It had had a 4% Ken lead for mayor – Boris finished up 6% ahead Back in 2008 at the first Boris-Ken battle the opinion polls became an issue during the campaign. YouGov was showing Boris leads close to what happened (a 6.2% Johnson lead) while Ipsos, in its final poll had Ken 3% ahead. The polling led to a lot of attacks on YouGov from Ken and the Labour camp but in the end the online firm was vindicated….

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