pic.twitter.com/69rnNCnVOX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 18, 2015 YouGov (What voters think of possible #Budget2015 measures): http://t.co/WkTOS2qZcj pic.twitter.com/W80CazwfnC — NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) March 18, 2015 The pre-budget @SportingIndex commons seats spreads http://t.co/E76CImc6ZI. CON 12 seats ahead pic.twitter.com/mItZLFXgp6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 18, 2015
This is the main driver of the bigger CON to LAB swing in the marginals I was on a train heading to London to speak at a conference when Lord Ashcroft’s latest CON-LAB battleground polling was published yesterday and have only now got round to looking at the detail. The most striking feature and a big driver of Labour’s strength in the seats polled is how well the party is doing in attracting and retaining 2010 LD to LAB switchers….
Latest @TNS_UK poll out Con 33 (+5) Lab 32 (-3) LD 7 (+1) UKIP 17 (-1) Greens 4 (-3) http://t.co/6OZfbbWkwQ — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 17, 2015 It appears as though TNS big move from to CON one might be partly due to methodology change. No mention now weighting back to 2014 Euros — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 17, 2015 Meanwhile on the debates, there has been progress or has there? Looks like there is progress on the leaders' debates http://t.co/qtAs0UpXJr pic.twitter.com/rX544YhirR —…
The latest batch of Lord Ashcroft marginals polling is out, and will bring bring great cheer to Labour and much disappointment to the Tories, who would have hoped the national polling trends would feed into the marginals. Lord Ashcroft says My findings this time suggest the better national news for the Conservatives is not spread evenly across the battleground. In only one of the seats, Worcester, has a Labour lead turned into a Tory one. In Croydon Central, the Labour…
Or do the Tories do best when the fieldwork is mostly at the weekend? At the moment this close to an election with the numbers so tight it’s interesting to divide the pollsters by methodology to see if there’s a pattern In the chart above showing the Tory lead over LAB there is a clear division between the phone pollsters and the online ones. The former are giving the edge every do slightly to the blues while the latter it…
And on that there is no clear cut picture There is a huge divide both between academic groups and others like Martin Baxter’s long-standing Electoral Calculus. Frankly I find it hard to work this one out and I guess that whatever happens it will be a big surprise on the night. My long term GE15 bet has been CON ahead on votes – LAB ahead on seats. Reminder the PB pre May 7th gathering tomorrow. The Shooting Star from 7pm
CON lead down from 4 to 2 with latest Ashcroft phone poll See details & trends from today's Ashcroft national poll pic.twitter.com/nTp4tRYByg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 16, 2015 CON lead down from 4 to 1 in the March ICM Guardian poll CON lead moves from 4 to 1 in latest ICM Guardian poll pic.twitter.com/BtRz62KD9e — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 16, 2015 So both the pollsters that had the biggest CON leads – ICM & Ashcroft with 4% – now…
Don’t be put off by the Ashcroft 6% CON lead One of the best UKIP constituency bets at the moment is the 4/1 that’s available from several bookies on UKIP winning South Basildon and East Thurrock. The candidate is Ian Luder, CBE, former Lord Mayor of London, ex-president of the Institute of Taxation, and advisor to government at the highest level. He’s also had a long record in local government with LAB and is a highly accomplished on the ground…