PB/Polling Matters Podcast: What does Labour do next?

PB/Polling Matters Podcast: What does Labour do next?

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Polling Matters is an independent, non partisan podcast providing, in conjunction with PB, expert polling news and political analysis in the aftermath of the 2015 General Election. This week, host Keiran Pedley discusses why Labour lost and what’s next for the party featuring interviews with Lord Foulkes and Professor John Curtice and analysis from regular Polling Matters contributors Rob Vance and Leo Barasi. Keiran tweets about polling and politics at @keiranpedley

Richard Tyndall on “Laying the groundwork for an ‘Out’ vote”

Richard Tyndall on “Laying the groundwork for an ‘Out’ vote”

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. The three challenges for those who want a NO vote It has been generally accepted that the ‘Out’ side currently face an uphill fight to try and win the referendum which will be held at some point over the next two or so years. Whilst there is overwhelming support in the country for reform of the EU and strong, but minority, support for leaving, unless the ‘Out’ side can produce a convincing argument as to why life will be…

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How Scotland and the LD collapse almost completely reverse the bias in the electoral system

How Scotland and the LD collapse almost completely reverse the bias in the electoral system

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The dramatic shift in Britain’s political landscape As we all know one of the constants in British politics over more than a quarter of a century has been that the electoral system has been “biased” towards Labour. Essentially for a given vote share the red team will have more MPs than the blue one. Well the big news from May 7th is that that is all over and now the Tories will get more seats for an equal vote share…

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Looking back to those final GE15 phone polls one thing stands out about LAB backers…

Looking back to those final GE15 phone polls one thing stands out about LAB backers…

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There were more non-GE10 voters in the LAB totals than in CON The British Polling Council inquiry into what went wrong with the GE15 is well under way and no doubt many will be putting forward theories about what caused them to be so wrong. One of the factors that I believe was partly responsible for the overstatement of LAB shares is featured in the chart above – a larger part of its support according to the surveys was coming…

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We now have the actual wording of the referendum question

We now have the actual wording of the referendum question

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pic.twitter.com/YLn0kAN9F0 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 28, 2015 “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union” As expected the wording of the EU referendum question makes remaining in the EU the YES option while leaving the NO one. There’s a view that people prefer to vote Yes to things than be negative and the planned wording therefore favours staying in the EU. I’m not so convinced. The last two big referendums, AV in 2011 and the IndyRef…

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Getting EVEL through will be a tough fight for the Tories

Getting EVEL through will be a tough fight for the Tories

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The next move is with John Bercow A significant moment on this historic day in the commons was a point of order by Alex Salmond about the Tory plans to introduce EVEL (English Votes for English Laws) by changing the House’s standing orders. Salmond argues that this is a major constitutional issue and that the incoming government should not be allowed to make a change which creates two classes of MPs by using its majority to change standing orders –…

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Developments this afternoon show that Yvette Cooper is still very much in the LAB leadership race

Developments this afternoon show that Yvette Cooper is still very much in the LAB leadership race

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Yvette Cooper is certainly not out of this. You can get her at 15/2 on Betfair http://t.co/JeIpAzTzkJ pic.twitter.com/xY4M8Hu9Yh — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 27, 2015 At current prices she’s the value bet This afternoon it’s been announced that a further six MPs have come out and said they are backing Yvette Cooper – a move that reminds me of Henry H Manson’s words on the site ten days ago about her having the best organised campaign. This fits with an…

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