— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 28, 2015
“Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union”
As expected the wording of the EU referendum question makes remaining in the EU the YES option while leaving the NO one.
There’s a view that people prefer to vote Yes to things than be negative and the planned wording therefore favours staying in the EU. I’m not so convinced. The last two big referendums, AV in 2011 and the IndyRef in Scotland, both saw No sides win.
What will be interesting is how the question plays out in the polls. The latest finding by YouGov last weekend had the wording “Do you think that the UK should be a member of the European Union?”
This was neutral in relation to the status quo and had Yes 12% ahead.
We don’t know yet about timing though reports overnight suggest that the government is aiming for May next year when the devolved government elections in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland take place. There is also the London Mayoral election.