Electoral analysis: The art of changing boundaries

Electoral analysis: The art of changing boundaries

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Antifrank looks at the art of changing boundaries In my last post I spent some time looking at the likely impact of the impending boundary changes on the numbers of seats in different regions and the potential impact on the seat numbers of different parties.  In this post I shall look at how the detail of the boundary review might assist or hinder the different parties. National party strategic considerations In the boundary commission review in the mid-1990s the Conservatives…

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Why you should be backing Jeremy Hunt as next PM

Why you should be backing Jeremy Hunt as next PM

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A betting slip from a few days ago. Despite their very best efforts, Labour wasn’t able to weaponise the NHS to their advantage or damage the Tories on the NHS in the election campaign (nor in the run up to the election.) The NHS is an issue that has been traditionally perceived to be one of Labour’s strongest areas, Labour’s failure to make the NHS an election issue says a lot about Hunt’s abilities as a Minister and to deal with…

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How winning a political bet can get you into trouble

How winning a political bet can get you into trouble

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This story in the Mail on Sunday makes me like Frank Field even more. http://t.co/YkpgxFTzmK pic.twitter.com/0fDSOtJasW — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 28, 2015 Just don’t tell anyone you bet on your own side losing I like this story in the Mail on Sunday, Frank Field the Labour MP for Birkenhead and Matthew Taylor, Tony Blair’s former head of policy and who wrote the 2005 Labour manifesto both bet on the Tories winning a majority in May. This has understandably earned the…

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Schrödinger’s referendum as Boris wants voters to vote both Yes and No to leaving the EU

Schrödinger’s referendum as Boris wants voters to vote both Yes and No to leaving the EU

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Today’s Sunday Times is reporting (££) BORIS JOHNSON is preparing to call for a no vote in Britain’s referendum on the European Union in an attempt to extract greater concessions from Brussels than David Cameron is demanding. In a stance that puts him on a collision course with the prime minister, the mayor of London believes Britain should reject any deal Cameron puts forward because the EU will not give enough ground. Johnson has told friends that a no vote…

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In Greece the crisis over the Euro is set to become a Drachma

In Greece the crisis over the Euro is set to become a Drachma

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See the footnote RT @JohnRentoul Looks as if Grexit really is going to happen either next week or after referendum pic.twitter.com/T4MHCgUMAx — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 27, 2015 Very surreal atmosphere in press room here in Brussels. One journalist in tears. Most reporters shocked euro rupture is happening. #Greece — Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) June 27, 2015 It appears, unsurprisingly, that all the bookies have suspended their markets on the outcome of the referendum and Greek exiting the Euro after this announcement…

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Dave’s European Challenge has become very big and very real

Dave’s European Challenge has become very big and very real

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Cameron could win the vote and still lose his job Selling the deal to the country was always going to be the easy bit. The tough ask for David Cameron is selling it to his party. The outcome of this week’s summit is, in that sense, one step forwards and two steps back. Simply getting the issue formally into the EU’s ongoing agenda was an achievement but one that is heavily diluted by the acceptance that there’ll be no treaty…

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Greece is the word for the next few days

Greece is the word for the next few days

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Blimey. http://t.co/EXUOh5EZsL #AcropolisNow pic.twitter.com/U0FuVS3dot — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 26, 2015 It will be a case of this referendum dominating events for the eight days at least, and undoubtedly longer, it appears that Alexis Tsipras is trying to give their creditors a Grecian Burn, how will they respond? The Guardian reported last week that A recent opinion poll for the news website Newsit showed as many as 74% of Greeks back the euro – with fully 50% saying they would be prepared…

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Don Brind says Labour hopefuls know their party’s future isn’t in their hands

Don Brind says Labour hopefuls know their party’s future isn’t in their hands

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It’s one of the toughest gigs in politics – going on after TV after a defeat to explain that, really,  your party had done quite well in the circumstances. The man holding the Labour short straw on the BBC on Friday morning April 10th 1992 was a middle-rankingsShadow minister — one Tony Blair.  I came across the BBC archive on YouTube few days ago, which is the video above, I didn’t see it at the time having worked through the…

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