politicalbetting.com – Page 1197 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

Local By-Election Preview: July 2nd 2015

2/7/2015 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Grantham, Barrowby on Lincolnshire (Con defence) Result of council at last election (2013): Conservatives 36, United Kingdom Independence Party 16, Labour 12, Lincolnshire Independents 8, Liberal Democrats 3, Independents 2 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 3) Result of ward at last election (2013): Conservatives 558 (38%), Independent 476 (32%), Labour 442 (30%) Candidates duly nominated: Rob Shorrock (Lab), Maureen Simon (UKIP), Mark Whittington (Con) Lincolnshire, on the face of it, looks rather boring. Since 1989 it’s only gone NOC…

Read More Read More

The Greek finance minister says he’d rather cut his arm off than sign a deal that doesn’t include debt relief

2/7/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Greek Fin Min @yanisvaroufakis won't sign deal without debt restructuring. #GreeceCrisis http://t.co/C6Qf4aQdLz pic.twitter.com/gbgHrr1ksD — Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) July 2, 2015 Latest betting odds on the Greek referendum. pic.twitter.com/nAOfZvhB2u — TSE (@TSEofPB) July 2, 2015 The betting markets seem to believe that Yes will win, but I suspect whatever the outcome either the Greek government or the Euro in Greece will be gone shortly after the referendum result is announced. This might lead to the government, money, people and businesses wanting…

Read More Read More

Heathrow is a major headache for Cameron (and an opportunity for Labour)

2/7/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Picture credit: Wikimedia Commons. Whilst the Conservatives fight over this weekâ€™s Airport Commission report, expanding Heathrow is exactly the type of common sense, business friendly policy that Labour should be supporting as it seeks to win again. The party must embrace it argues Keiran Pedley The Prime Minister has a leadership crisis on his hands. Perhaps this crisis is not as serious as recent world events in Tunisia or Greece. Perhaps it does not animate Conservative back benchers as much…

Read More Read More

How the Alternative Vote system could stop Burnham becoming Labour leader

1/7/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

How Corbyn could stop Burnham winning the Labour leadership http://t.co/2f88L4Rpcs pic.twitter.com/lgVdxNMvrt — TSE (@TSEofPB) July 1, 2015 Many thanks to Richard Nabavi for posting this article by Peter Kellner on the previous thread. Peter Kellner looks at how the Alternative Vote system Labour use to elect their leader might stop Andy Burnham winning, it should be remembered, that this voting system helped Ed Miliband defeat his brother five years ago. If you’re not sure how the Alternative Vote system works, this…

Read More Read More

How a third runway at Heathrow could make for a real Old Etonian mess for Cameron

1/7/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

David Cameron in 2013 reaffirming his 2009 pledge that â€œThe third runway at Heathrow is not going ahead, no ifs, no buts.â€ It might be a novel experience for the Tory Party to be split on issue other than than EU, but the third runway at Heathrow has the potential to be just as problematic. Today the Davies report has backed building a third runway at Heathrow.Â The above video shows Cameron in 2013 reaffirming a 2009 pledge not to build…

Read More Read More

Local By-Election Result : June 30th 2015

1/7/2015 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Result: Conservative 561 (40% -14%), Plaid 543 (39% +27%), Labour 234 (17% -12%), Independent 24 (2%, no candidate in 2012), Green Party 22 (2% -1%), Liberal Democrats 10 (1% -1%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 18 (1%) on a swing of 21% from Conservative to Plaid

The Ipsos Mori issues index for June

1/7/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The big risers are Immigration/Immigrants and EU/Europe, which seems understandable given the focus on the EU referendum since the election. The big faller is the economy, which maybe confirmation of the fifteen year high in consumer confidence that the pollster GfK found yesterday. For me the most interesting aspect of this polling is the below chart. There’s a real difference between the ages, so the older groups are more concerned by the EU than younger ones, this as has…

Read More Read More

Local By-Election Preview : June 30th 2015

30/6/2015 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Pentyrch on Cardiff (Con defence) Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 46, Liberal Democrats 16, Conservatives 7, Independents 4, Plaid Cymru 2 (Labour majority of 17) Result of ward at last election (2012): Conservative 772 (54%), Labour 413 (29%), Plaid Cymru 171 (12%), Green 40 (3%), Liberal Democrat 22 (2%) Candidates duly nominated: Cadan ap Tomos (Lib Dem), Paul Fisher (Lab), Gavin Hill (Con), Munawar Mughal (Ind), Ruth Osner (Green), Hywel Wigley (Plaid) Cardiff, the capital city of…

Read More Read More