Greek referendum final polls show 'No' vote ahead by small margin http://t.co/36wH1Sg34G — Reuters (@Reuters) July 5, 2015 Half of votes counted #Greferendum pic.twitter.com/WJNrKCkvqS — Adam Boulton (@adamboultonTABB) July 5, 2015
< Why Polls End Up Saying The Same Thing Following the General Election, the pollsters have been accused of having herd instincts. How else do so many polling companies, acting independently, get to the same – wrong – answer? In the final days of the campaign, the polls mainly agreed on the likely outcome, and even a late movement to Labour. Polls of polls ironed out small differences and gave an even greater feeling of certainty. But the natural belief...
Smart move by Tim Farron as the LD leadership race draws to a closehttp://t.co/QY5nhfdiSJ pic.twitter.com/y1IgZ5r3a9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 4, 2015 With the Lib Dem leadership race drawing to a close the favourite, ex-party president Tim Farron, according to the Observer, has said that the UK should take 60,000 immigrants to help deal with the current crisis. According to Toby Helm’s report: “..“We should support this because we are decent people. Our party should not have a mixed message…
"Liz Kendall is to Labour as Ken Clarke was to the Tories 1997-2005." Discuss. — Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) July 1, 2015 For EU supporter read “Blairite” or “CON-lite” As I was returning from holiday a couple of days ago the News Statesman’s, Stephen Bush posted the above Tweet which I’ve been pondering over ever since – for there might be a grain of truth in it. After the appalling Tory defeat by Tony Blair in 1997 the Tories had a…
David Herdson on a crucial weekend If there were any doubt that David Cameron is a lucky politician, events in Europe this last week have again made the point. No sooner had he suffered a setback at the European Council, failing to win a chance of treaty reform, than the Greek government gives him (inadvertently, no doubt), a huge helping hand. The decision of Alexis Tsipras to commit his government to destruction by a method to be determined by the…
The body that will oversee the shake-up In my last two posts, here and here, I’ve looked at the likely impact of the boundary review and considered how the parties might wish to see those boundaries fall.  To date I haven’t really looked at the role of the Boundary Commissions at all.  This is a serious omission. In fact, it will be the Boundary Commissions that determine the constituency boundaries. The parties can make representations but the Boundary Commissions will have…
Grantham, Barrowby on Lincolnshire (Con defence) Result: Conservative 579 (50% +12%), Labour 257 (22% -8%), UKIP 179 (15%, no candidate in 2013), Lincolnshire Independents 155 (13%, no candidate in 2013) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 322 (28%) on a swing of 10% from Labour to Conservative Hampton Wick on Richmond upon Thames (Con defence) Result: Liberal Democrat 1,189 (43% +25%), Conservative 1,081 (39% -11%), Green 237 (9% -10%), Labour 185 (7% -7%), UKIP 69 (3%, no candidate in 2014),…
Why my LD vote could be against my betting self interest Just got back from a wonderfully restful holiday on the coast near the ancient sherry town of Jerez in South West Spain to find my LD leadership voting papers there waiting for my attention. The choice is very difficult. Back in April 2011 I suggested on PB that Norman Lamb, then 25/1, might be a good next party leader bet and I do well if he wins. Certainly if,…