New study suggests that UKIP’s “2020 strategy” is going to be challenging

New study suggests that UKIP’s “2020 strategy” is going to be challenging

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House of Commons Library blog – Steven Ayres In 5/6ths its 120 GE15 2nd places it faces majorities of 10%+ In the aftermath of May 7th UKIP was taking some comfort from the 120 second places it had chalked up suggesting that this provided a good platform for next time. Maybe. Steven Ayres on the House of Commons Library blog has produced an interesting analysis of Farage’s party’s performance and the potential to build on its record GE15. His chart…

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Pax Osbornia: recasting the political landscape into the 2030s

Pax Osbornia: recasting the political landscape into the 2030s

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But he still won’t be prime minister It takes a staggering degree of self-restraint and of confidence to know that you plan to increase the minimum wage by more than 10% and to choose to say nothing about it during an election campaign. It also shows a fine level of political judgement. Had George Osborne done so, he would have been accused of panicking and of allowing Labour to set the agenda. He probably wouldn’t have been believed and if…

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Pleased to meet you: the Labour intake of 2015

Pleased to meet you: the Labour intake of 2015

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Antifrank looks at the Labour intake of 2015 The election in May was a huge disappointment for Labour, going backwards rather than forwards.  Despite losing seats, however, over one fifth of the Labour MPs elected in May were not in the House of Commons in the last Parliament.  That is a big chunk of the Parliamentary party and the new MPs will have a big influence over the party’s future direction.  Who are these new MPs, what do they believe…

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This week’s local by elections see holds for SNP, PC, CON and LAB but no seats changing hands

This week’s local by elections see holds for SNP, PC, CON and LAB but no seats changing hands

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Thorniewood on North Lanarkshire (SNP defence) Result: Scottish National Party 1,555 (47% +23%), Labour 1,410 (43% -28%), Conservative 149 (5% unchanged), SSP 81 (2%, no candidate in 2012), Green 51 (2%, no candidate in 2012), Scottish Christian Party 33 (1%, no candidate in 2012), United Kingdom Independence Party 29 (1%, no candidate in 2012) SNP HOLD elected on the 6th count on a swing of 25.5% from Labour to SNP Morfa Nefyn on Gwynedd (Plaid Defence) Result: Plaid Cymru 315…

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Don Brind’s question for the LAB 4: How will you get the better of Osborne in 2020?

Don Brind’s question for the LAB 4: How will you get the better of Osborne in 2020?

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This should be the decisive factor For Labour supporters the worst moment of the General Election campaign came a week ahead of polling day when Ed Miliband was ambushed by Tory activists in the BBC Question Time audience and left floundering over whether the Labour government spending had been too high. We didn’t need the Guardian/ICM poll which scored evening 44% for Cameron and 38% for Miliband to tell us that their guy had won and ours had lost. The…

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Harry Hayfeld’s Local By-Election Preview : July 9th 2015

Harry Hayfeld’s Local By-Election Preview : July 9th 2015

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Thorniewood on North Lanarkshire (SNP defence) Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 41, Scottish National Party 26, Independents 2, Cumbernauld Independent Councillors Alliance 1 (Labour majority of 12) Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected Labour: 1,623, 1,443 (71%) Scottish National Party: 1,057 (24%) Conservative: 225 (5%) Candidates duly nominated: Steven Bonnar (SNP), Hugh Gaffney (Lab), Meghan Gallacher (Con), Patrick McAleer (Green), Liam McCabe (SSP), Craig Smith (Scottish Christian Party), Matt Williams (UKIP) What I…

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It could be that the days of saturation general election polling ended at 10pm on May 7th

It could be that the days of saturation general election polling ended at 10pm on May 7th

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The chart says it all. There have been just 6 general election polls published in the UK since May 7th – a sharp contrast with the numbers we saw even by this stage five years ago. Confidence in the numbers that are produced has collapsed – a situation not helped by the polling ahead of last weekend’s referendum in Greece. If polling cannot give us even a broad picture of a likely general election outcome then what is the point?…

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In the LAB leadership race Osbo’s budget looks set to help Yvette more than Andy, Jeremy or Liz

In the LAB leadership race Osbo’s budget looks set to help Yvette more than Andy, Jeremy or Liz

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A Budget that betrays working parents – with women hit more than twice as hard as men. See my response http://t.co/jTinSjRpIW @TheStaggers — Yvette Cooper (@YvetteCooperMP) July 8, 2015 70% of the £9.6bn net extra being raised from households (inc tax credits, allowances, benefits) is coming from women (£7bn) @CommonsLibrary — Yvette Cooper (@YvetteCooperMP) July 8, 2015 Yesterday could help revive Yvette’s flagging campaign A big problem for all contenders is that there have been precious few opportunities since the…

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