Antifrank looks at the Labour intake of 2015 The election in May was a huge disappointment for Labour, going backwards rather than forwards. Despite losing seats, however, over one fifth of the Labour MPs elected in May were not in the House of Commons in the last Parliament. That is a big chunk of the Parliamentary party and the new MPs will have a big influence over the party’s future direction. Who are these new MPs, what do they believe…
Thorniewood on North Lanarkshire (SNP defence) Result: Scottish National Party 1,555 (47% +23%), Labour 1,410 (43% -28%), Conservative 149 (5% unchanged), SSP 81 (2%, no candidate in 2012), Green 51 (2%, no candidate in 2012), Scottish Christian Party 33 (1%, no candidate in 2012), United Kingdom Independence Party 29 (1%, no candidate in 2012) SNP HOLD elected on the 6th count on a swing of 25.5% from Labour to SNP Morfa Nefyn on Gwynedd (Plaid Defence) Result: Plaid Cymru 315…
This should be the decisive factor For Labour supporters the worst moment of the General Election campaign came a week ahead of polling day when Ed Miliband was ambushed by Tory activists in the BBC Question Time audience and left floundering over whether the Labour government spending had been too high. We didn’t need the Guardian/ICM poll which scored evening 44% for Cameron and 38% for Miliband to tell us that their guy had won and ours had lost. The…
Thorniewood on North Lanarkshire (SNP defence) Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 41, Scottish National Party 26, Independents 2, Cumbernauld Independent Councillors Alliance 1 (Labour majority of 12) Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected Labour: 1,623, 1,443 (71%) Scottish National Party: 1,057 (24%) Conservative: 225 (5%) Candidates duly nominated: Steven Bonnar (SNP), Hugh Gaffney (Lab), Meghan Gallacher (Con), Patrick McAleer (Green), Liam McCabe (SSP), Craig Smith (Scottish Christian Party), Matt Williams (UKIP) What I…
The chart says it all. There have been just 6 general election polls published in the UK since May 7th – a sharp contrast with the numbers we saw even by this stage five years ago. Confidence in the numbers that are produced has collapsed – a situation not helped by the polling ahead of last weekend’s referendum in Greece. If polling cannot give us even a broad picture of a likely general election outcome then what is the point?…
A Budget that betrays working parents – with women hit more than twice as hard as men. See my response http://t.co/jTinSjRpIW @TheStaggers — Yvette Cooper (@YvetteCooperMP) July 8, 2015 70% of the £9.6bn net extra being raised from households (inc tax credits, allowances, benefits) is coming from women (£7bn) @CommonsLibrary — Yvette Cooper (@YvetteCooperMP) July 8, 2015 Yesterday could help revive Yvette’s flagging campaign A big problem for all contenders is that there have been precious few opportunities since the…
In this week’s episode of Polling Matters in conjunction with Politicalbetting.com, Keiran and Rob Vance – VP at Penn Schoen Berland. discuss the perils of polling with Suzanne Ter Minassian of ICM. We look at the BPC inquiry and Lord Foulkes’ plans to regulate the industry alongside the Greek referendum and Labour leadership contests. Suzanne also explains how polling is done in France and the impact of statutory regulation there.
Introducing the new betting favourite for next CON leader and PMGeorge Osborne pic.twitter.com/WV5zs03Yzv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 8, 2015 Last trade on next CON leader marketon Betfair had Osborne just longer than evens – a 48% chance — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 8, 2015 Ladbrokes now make Osborne favourite for next CON leader5/2 Osborne11/4 Johnson7/1 May7/1 Javid — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 8, 2015 Ladbrokes next PM betting11/4 George Osborne3/1 Boris Johnson8/1 Andy Burnham10/1 Theresa May10/1 Sajid Javid14/1 Yvette…