Donald Trump now topping a poll in race for the Republican nomination

Donald Trump now topping a poll in race for the Republican nomination

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Should we take this seriously or is it just a passing fad? With all the focus on Labour’s trials and tribulations as it goes through its leadership election we have not really focused on the coming fight for the White House in 2016 which almost certainly will be the biggest political painting event of next year. On the Democratic Party side things look relatively settled with Hillary Clinton the odds on favourite. The Republican battle looks to be the most…

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Henry G Manson with an interesting LAB leadership bet

Henry G Manson with an interesting LAB leadership bet

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How are the 2nd and 3rd preferences going to work out? In all the discussion about the rights and wrongs of Labour’s response to the government’s Welfare Bill, this article from Gary Gibbon lays out one of the political factors for Burnham – the order of candidates between him and Yvette. Gibbon writes: ‘It’s a bit of mug’s game guessing the leadership contest results but the candidates are endlessly doing just that, gaming what second preferences they need to chase…

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Peak Corbyn?

Peak Corbyn?

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Have we reached Peak Corbyn? Jez's chances tick down for the first time. http://t.co/O4JRlgE69n pic.twitter.com/ufPIW6lgb1 — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) July 20, 2015 As noted yesterday, there appears to be the start of the Stop Corbyn campaign, yesterday’s Observer editorial weighed in with “If Jeremy Corbyn is the answer then Labour is asking the wrong question.” This campaign to stop Corbyn might be working, the above tweet from Ladbrokes points out Corbyn’s chances are ticking down, perhaps it might be prudent to…

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Meanwhile leadership turmoil isn’t confined to LAB. It’s not all sweetness & light in the blue team

Meanwhile leadership turmoil isn’t confined to LAB. It’s not all sweetness & light in the blue team

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While LAB's leadership turmoil continues CON big beasts are scrapping in battle to replace DChttp://t.co/lFSH95kyIo pic.twitter.com/nt5JzroeFG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 19, 2015 Osborne, the new betting favourite, accused of briefing war against the mayor It was inevitable that when David Cameron said before the election that he wouldn’t seek a third term that this would, at some stage, trigger off media interest and speculation about succession in the Tory party. The big difference with Labour is that the Tory…

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John Rentoul thinks that private poll was leaked by Liz Kendall

John Rentoul thinks that private poll was leaked by Liz Kendall

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In today’s Independent on Sunday, John Rentoul writes I fear that the story of a private poll that put Corbyn in the lead was a desperate ploy by the Liz Kendall campaign. My view is that Kendall is easily the best candidate, and the only one who has a chance of winning the next election for Labour without relying on the Conservatives to fall apart. But I accept that her campaign, after its flying start, has not gone well. She…

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How SNP supporters could sabotage the EU referendum

How SNP supporters could sabotage the EU referendum

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Panelbase polled Scots & Rest of UK (RUK) voters 66% of Scots would vote to REMAIN in the EU 51% of RUK voters would vote to LEAVE the EU — TSE (@TSEofPB) July 18, 2015 Could tactical Scottish Nationalist voters win it for OUT? Panelbase polled 1,002 voters in Scotland and 956 voters in the rest of the UK from June 26th to July 3rd and got the above results on the forthcoming EU referendum, so this isn’t an analysis of English and…

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Antifrank: Hanging tough – the Conservative intake of 2015

Antifrank: Hanging tough – the Conservative intake of 2015

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Antifrank looks at the new members of the Tory parliamentary party. Despite relatively few seats changing hands in May, more than a fifth of Conservative MPs – 74 in total – were not in the last Parliament.  They will have a big influence on the dynamics of the Conservative party in government.  What do they look like?  Well, here they are: I’ve ploughed through MP websites, interviews and newspaper articles to find out more about them.  In the course of…

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David Herdson says “Set the BBC free and let it flourish”

David Herdson says “Set the BBC free and let it flourish”

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We wouldn’t debate the ‘purpose’ of any other media organisation In all the debate about the terms of the BBC’s renewed Charter, one question seems to have gone unasked, never mind unanswered: why does the BBC need a Charter at all? The political reason why it has one is that it’s the flip-side of being funded by a tax, enforceable in law and if it has that right then it must equally have certain duties. The current debate about what…

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