After a difficult couple of days Burnham still very strong favourite
Market update Watching the Betfair exchange a lot of money is being wagered on Corbyn tonight. & he's now back at a 20%+ chance. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 21, 2015
Labour is paying a price for its elongated leadership contest
If Labour had the courage to oppose the Welfare Bill, together we could have defeated the Tories. pic.twitter.com/pBGCF2wFBL — Liberal Democrats (@LibDems) July 21, 2015 The welfare vote abstention looks like a mistake I was recovering from an operation last night and am only now catching up on the big welfare vote in the commons. Labour’s abstention move does look like a mistake and was the product of the party not having a confident leader in place to steer the…
Donald Trump now topping a poll in race for the Republican nomination
Should we take this seriously or is it just a passing fad? With all the focus on Labour’s trials and tribulations as it goes through its leadership election we have not really focused on the coming fight for the White House in 2016 which almost certainly will be the biggest political painting event of next year. On the Democratic Party side things look relatively settled with Hillary Clinton the odds on favourite. The Republican battle looks to be the most…
Henry G Manson with an interesting LAB leadership bet
How are the 2nd and 3rd preferences going to work out? In all the discussion about the rights and wrongs of Labour’s response to the government’s Welfare Bill, this article from Gary Gibbon lays out one of the political factors for Burnham – the order of candidates between him and Yvette. Gibbon writes: ‘It’s a bit of mug’s game guessing the leadership contest results but the candidates are endlessly doing just that, gaming what second preferences they need to chase…
Peak Corbyn?
Have we reached Peak Corbyn? Jez's chances tick down for the first time. http://t.co/O4JRlgE69n pic.twitter.com/ufPIW6lgb1 — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) July 20, 2015 As noted yesterday, there appears to be the start of the Stop Corbyn campaign, yesterday’s Observer editorial weighed in with “If Jeremy Corbyn is the answer then Labour is asking the wrong question.” This campaign to stop Corbyn might be working, the above tweet from Ladbrokes points out Corbyn’s chances are ticking down, perhaps it might be prudent to…
Meanwhile leadership turmoil isn’t confined to LAB. It’s not all sweetness & light in the blue team
While LAB's leadership turmoil continues CON big beasts are scrapping in battle to replace DChttp://t.co/lFSH95kyIo pic.twitter.com/nt5JzroeFG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 19, 2015 Osborne, the new betting favourite, accused of briefing war against the mayor It was inevitable that when David Cameron said before the election that he wouldn’t seek a third term that this would, at some stage, trigger off media interest and speculation about succession in the Tory party. The big difference with Labour is that the Tory…
John Rentoul thinks that private poll was leaked by Liz Kendall
In today’s Independent on Sunday, John Rentoul writes I fear that the story of a private poll that put Corbyn in the lead was a desperate ploy by the Liz Kendall campaign. My view is that Kendall is easily the best candidate, and the only one who has a chance of winning the next election for Labour without relying on the Conservatives to fall apart. But I accept that her campaign, after its flying start, has not gone well. She…
How SNP supporters could sabotage the EU referendum
Panelbase polled Scots & Rest of UK (RUK) voters 66% of Scots would vote to REMAIN in the EU 51% of RUK voters would vote to LEAVE the EU — TSE (@TSEofPB) July 18, 2015 Could tactical Scottish Nationalist voters win it for OUT? Panelbase polled 1,002 voters in Scotland and 956 voters in the rest of the UK from June 26th to July 3rd and got the above results on the forthcoming EU referendum, so this isn’t an analysis of English and…