By this time next week a large part of Labour’s selectorate will have cast their votes

By this time next week a large part of Labour’s selectorate will have cast their votes

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Time is running out for the ABC (Anbody But Corbyn) campaigners Although it will be just over a month before the result in Labour’s leadership election will be announced the ballot packs go out on Friday. The experience of postal voting is that electors tend not to leave their ballots hanging around and fill them in very quickly. So a week today we must assume that a sizeable proportion of the selectorate will have filled in their ballots and put…

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Corbyn set to win on the first round according to sensational YouGov LAB leadership poll

Corbyn set to win on the first round according to sensational YouGov LAB leadership poll

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Dramatic changes in the betting YouGov's Peter Kellner says “I would personally be astonished if Mr Corbyn does not end up as Labour’s leader" — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 11, 2015 To think that Corbyn only got enough MP nominations to be on the ballot because Team Burnham thought it smart to "lend" him some — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 11, 2015 61% of women in YouGov LAB poll support Corbyn compared with 48% of men in the sample —…

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Good news and some potentially worrying news for the SNP in latest TNS Scotland poll

Good news and some potentially worrying news for the SNP in latest TNS Scotland poll

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Salmond & co should be doing better on the NHS Fewer than 1/3 of Scottish voters sampled by TNS rated the Scottish Government's management of NHS as good pic.twitter.com/MiYFrYMR7u — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 10, 2015 But a big 2016 Holyrood result looks on the cards New TNS Scottish poll finds SNP up to 62% in constituency section of next May's Holyrood election pic.twitter.com/R3718Ms0hn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 10, 2015

Labour’s alternative vote system could be what stops Corbyn

Labour’s alternative vote system could be what stops Corbyn

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How Yvette Cooper could come 3rd on 1st preferences yet still end up as winner In the last 2 big LAB selections the person top on 1st round hasn’t won. This happened with Harriet Harman in the 2007 deputy race and, of course, when EdM beat his brother five years ago. This was all, of course, because of the party’s alternative voting system when electors are asked to give their second and third choices as well as their first one….

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Meanwhile in the White House race the reverberations from the Fox News GOP contenders debate comtinue

Meanwhile in the White House race the reverberations from the Fox News GOP contenders debate comtinue

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One reaction to Thursday's Fox News GOP debate. pic.twitter.com/dSiiyBCrCN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 9, 2015 What a difference Trump makes. Most watched primary debates: WH2008 10.7m WH2012 7.63m WH2016 last Thursday 24m Via @GoodwinMJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 9, 2015

The Labour leader at the general election betting

The Labour leader at the general election betting

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Ladbrokes have a market up on who will be the Labour leader at the next general election. This is an interesting market, because you can see scenarios that whoever wins in September ends up being replaced before the next election. I know the recent precedent is that that Labour don’t remove poorly performing leaders (in fact only replace three time election winning leaders) but this time it feels different for the next Labour leader. If they perform badly, there’s more…

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All the Labour deputy leader candidates say they will serve under Corbyn

All the Labour deputy leader candidates say they will serve under Corbyn

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I'm taking this to mean the Deputy Leader candidates think Corbyn's going to win pic.twitter.com/Hgi9YcPLA7 — TSE (@TSEofPB) August 8, 2015 Are the deputy leader candidates preparing for a Corbyn victory? Looking at the front page of the Independent on Sunday, I suspect most of the focus will be on Jeremy Corbyn’s plans to bring back clause IV, but the most interesting aspect of that front page for me is all of the deputy leader candidates saying they will serve under Jeremy…

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With just a week to go before voting starts Corbyn is back as favourite

With just a week to go before voting starts Corbyn is back as favourite

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Hopefully we’ll see new YouGov polling in the next few days Over the past week Andy Burnham has been making the running in the LAB leadership betting returning for a few days to be favourite. That’s now changing and this afternoon the money was moving Corbyn’s way an he’s now back as favourite. What this means I don’t know. I’m not convinced that the bulk of the new names are necessarily part of the Corbyn camp. Many, I’m told, are…

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