Revised analysis of YouGov’s LAB selectorate poll has Corbyn with 57% of first preferences

Revised analysis of YouGov’s LAB selectorate poll has Corbyn with 57% of first preferences

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Via @AlbertoNardelli The report in the Times about Corbyn being on 57% with YouGov pic.twitter.com/K28q62af0H — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 14, 2015 The President of YouGov, Peter Kellner, explained in a separate article that they had looked at the polling figures again in the light of the data from the party showing the huge influx of names in the final few days. He goes on:- “..I have taken the support YouGov found in each of these groups and adjusted the…

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Tonight’s by-elections see 2 contests each in Scotland, Wales and England

Tonight’s by-elections see 2 contests each in Scotland, Wales and England

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Harry Hayfield’s preview Crosskeys on Caerphilly (Lab defence) Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 50, Plaid Cymru 20, Independent 3 (Labour majority of 27) Result of ward at last election (2012): Labour 543 (55%), Independent 281 (28%), Plaid Cymru 126 (13%), Conservative 39 (4%) Candidates duly nominated: Chris Cook (Plaid), Julian Simmonds (Lab), Joe Smyth (UKIP) The natural assumption of most people to Caerphilly would be “Yawn, Labour hold, next council please!” but to disregard Caerphilly would be…

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Don Brind: Why having an “electable” leader matters so much

Don Brind: Why having an “electable” leader matters so much

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The great chronicler of US presidential elections, Theodore White, tells the story of a Democratic candidate for minor office in New York who complained to the local party boss that the party had issued no publicity with his name on it. Go down to the harbour, he was told. Look at the Staten Island ferry. When it comes in to dock it drags harbour garbage in its wake. “Franklin Delano Roosevelt is your Staten island ferry, ” An “electable” leader…

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On the eve of the LAB ballots going out – a party at war

On the eve of the LAB ballots going out – a party at war

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The front page of today's "I" sums up Labour's crisis pic.twitter.com/A8HSVmtAoK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 12, 2015 Now LAB's most successful election winner intervenes in the leadership election. http://t.co/ov2rIWMldq pic.twitter.com/AKL8meWiLl — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 12, 2015 Corbyn price on the Betfair exchange pic.twitter.com/ymMnpNwTcD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2015

The lucid Harvard professor who could make Hillary’s White House bid a bit less straightforward

The lucid Harvard professor who could make Hillary’s White House bid a bit less straightforward

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I don’t know how seriously to take this move by the prominent, and highly lucid, Harvard law professor who wants to become president and then stand down after getting effective campaign finance reforms enacted. His strength as a communicator are shown in his promotional video. The key test is whether his plan to “crowd source” his bid is successful. If this does take off in any way then the Hillary campaign could be most effected. Her current dominating position has…

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The practical guide to centre-left schisms

The practical guide to centre-left schisms

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The Labour party leadership election has left the Blairites looking isolated.  Some of Jeremy Corbyn’s supporters have described them as viruses and cancers, and have suggested that they look for the exit.  Every Blairite from Tony Blair and Liz Kendall downwards has disavowed the idea of leaving the Labour party, but vows are spoken to be broken, and given the bitterness and the ideological divide they might in due course consider their options. Before doing so, they should look at…

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Trade union machinations to help Corbyn aren’t necessary – if YouGov is right he’ll win easily anyway

Trade union machinations to help Corbyn aren’t necessary – if YouGov is right he’ll win easily anyway

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Remember how the trade unions got round the rules at LAB’s last leadership election The mail-pack featured above, from the GMB union to those of its members entitled to vote in Labour’s last leadership election, played a pivotal role in 2010 in securing the prize for the younger Miliband brother. It was developed for the GMB, UNISON and UNITE unions as part of a plan to get round a Labour party ban on candidates’ promotional materials being included in the…

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Jeb Bush, 6/4 favourite for the GOP nomination, slips to 7% in the first post debate poll

Jeb Bush, 6/4 favourite for the GOP nomination, slips to 7% in the first post debate poll

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Carly Fiorina & Ted Cruz big movers in post debate GOP nominee poll by Survey Monkey for NBCTrump still dominates. pic.twitter.com/0kTuFSejLf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 11, 2015 Trump up 1 while Fiorina and Cruz the big gainers Away from the Labour leadership the most intriguing political betting market currently is on who will be the Republican party nominee for the November 2016 Presidential Election. Last Thursday we had the first live TV debates and today we’ve got the first…

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