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Trade union machinations to help Corbyn aren’t necessary – if YouGov is right he’ll win easily anyway

12/8/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Remember how the trade unions got round the rules at LAB’s last leadership election The mail-pack featured above, from the GMB union to those of its members entitled to vote in Labour’s last leadership election, played a pivotal role in 2010 in securing the prize for the younger Miliband brother. It was developed for the GMB, UNISON and UNITE unions as part of a plan to get round a Labour party ban on candidates’ promotional materials being included in the…

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Jeb Bush, 6/4 favourite for the GOP nomination, slips to 7% in the first post debate poll

11/8/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Carly Fiorina & Ted Cruz big movers in post debate GOP nominee poll by Survey Monkey for NBCTrump still dominates. pic.twitter.com/0kTuFSejLf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 11, 2015 Trump up 1 while Fiorina and Cruz the big gainers Away from the Labour leadership the most intriguing political betting market currently is on who will be the Republican party nominee for the November 2016 Presidential Election. Last Thursday we had the first live TV debates and today we’ve got the first…

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By this time next week a large part of Labour’s selectorate will have cast their votes

11/8/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Time is running out for the ABC (Anbody But Corbyn) campaigners Although it will be just over a month before the result in Labour’s leadership election will be announced the ballot packs go out on Friday. The experience of postal voting is that electors tend not to leave their ballots hanging around and fill them in very quickly. So a week today we must assume that a sizeable proportion of the selectorate will have filled in their ballots and put…

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Corbyn set to win on the first round according to sensational YouGov LAB leadership poll

11/8/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Dramatic changes in the betting YouGov's Peter Kellner says “I would personally be astonished if Mr Corbyn does not end up as Labour’s leader" — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 11, 2015 To think that Corbyn only got enough MP nominations to be on the ballot because Team Burnham thought it smart to "lend" him some — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 11, 2015 61% of women in YouGov LAB poll support Corbyn compared with 48% of men in the sample —…

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Good news and some potentially worrying news for the SNP in latest TNS Scotland poll

10/8/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Salmond & co should be doing better on the NHS Fewer than 1/3 of Scottish voters sampled by TNS rated the Scottish Government's management of NHS as good pic.twitter.com/MiYFrYMR7u — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 10, 2015 But a big 2016 Holyrood result looks on the cards New TNS Scottish poll finds SNP up to 62% in constituency section of next May's Holyrood election pic.twitter.com/R3718Ms0hn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 10, 2015

Labour’s alternative vote system could be what stops Corbyn

10/8/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

How Yvette Cooper could come 3rd on 1st preferences yet still end up as winner In the last 2 big LAB selections the person top on 1st round hasn’t won. This happened with Harriet Harman in the 2007 deputy race and, of course, when EdM beat his brother five years ago. This was all, of course, because of the party’s alternative voting system when electors are asked to give their second and third choices as well as their first one….

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Meanwhile in the White House race the reverberations from the Fox News GOP contenders debate comtinue

9/8/2015 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

One reaction to Thursday's Fox News GOP debate. pic.twitter.com/dSiiyBCrCN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 9, 2015 What a difference Trump makes. Most watched primary debates: WH2008 10.7m WH2012 7.63m WH2016 last Thursday 24m Via @GoodwinMJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 9, 2015

The Labour leader at the general election betting

9/8/2015 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Ladbrokes have a market up on who will be the Labour leader at the next general election. This is an interesting market, because you can see scenarios that whoever wins in September ends up being replaced before the next election. I know the recent precedent is that that Labour don’t remove poorly performing leaders (in fact only replace three time election winning leaders) but this time it feels different for the next Labour leader. If they perform badly, there’s more…

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