Keiran Pedley looks at whether Cameron could fight the 2020 general election

Keiran Pedley looks at whether Cameron could fight the 2020 general election

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What’s next for the Conservatives? Could David Cameron stay on and fight the 2020 General Election? Since the Conservatives somewhat unexpectedly won a majority in May most of the media attention has been focused on who the next Labour leader will be. But what about the Conservatives? As Labour tears itself apart it is easy to forget that the Tories have problems of their own. The party has never really ‘settled’ the issue of Europe and the upcoming EU referendum…

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An LD gain from CON and a CON gain from LAB the main highlights of this week’s local by elections

An LD gain from CON and a CON gain from LAB the main highlights of this week’s local by elections

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Crosskeys on Caerphilly (Lab defence) Result: Labour 354 (51% -4%), Plaid Cymru 179 (26% +13%), United Kingdom Independence Party 166 (24%, no candidate in 2012) Labour HOLD with a majority of 175 (25%) on a swing of 8.5% from Labour to Plaid Cymru Glasbury on Powys (Con defence) Result: Liberal Democrats 457 (44%, no candidate in 2012), Conservatives 415 (40% -15%), Independent 106 (10% -23%), Green Party 52 (5%, no candidate in 2012) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a…

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Revised analysis of YouGov’s LAB selectorate poll has Corbyn with 57% of first preferences

Revised analysis of YouGov’s LAB selectorate poll has Corbyn with 57% of first preferences

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Via @AlbertoNardelli The report in the Times about Corbyn being on 57% with YouGov pic.twitter.com/K28q62af0H — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 14, 2015 The President of YouGov, Peter Kellner, explained in a separate article that they had looked at the polling figures again in the light of the data from the party showing the huge influx of names in the final few days. He goes on:- “..I have taken the support YouGov found in each of these groups and adjusted the…

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Tonight’s by-elections see 2 contests each in Scotland, Wales and England

Tonight’s by-elections see 2 contests each in Scotland, Wales and England

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Harry Hayfield’s preview Crosskeys on Caerphilly (Lab defence) Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 50, Plaid Cymru 20, Independent 3 (Labour majority of 27) Result of ward at last election (2012): Labour 543 (55%), Independent 281 (28%), Plaid Cymru 126 (13%), Conservative 39 (4%) Candidates duly nominated: Chris Cook (Plaid), Julian Simmonds (Lab), Joe Smyth (UKIP) The natural assumption of most people to Caerphilly would be “Yawn, Labour hold, next council please!” but to disregard Caerphilly would be…

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Don Brind: Why having an “electable” leader matters so much

Don Brind: Why having an “electable” leader matters so much

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The great chronicler of US presidential elections, Theodore White, tells the story of a Democratic candidate for minor office in New York who complained to the local party boss that the party had issued no publicity with his name on it. Go down to the harbour, he was told. Look at the Staten Island ferry. When it comes in to dock it drags harbour garbage in its wake. “Franklin Delano Roosevelt is your Staten island ferry, ” An “electable” leader…

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On the eve of the LAB ballots going out – a party at war

On the eve of the LAB ballots going out – a party at war

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The front page of today's "I" sums up Labour's crisis pic.twitter.com/A8HSVmtAoK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 12, 2015 Now LAB's most successful election winner intervenes in the leadership election. http://t.co/ov2rIWMldq pic.twitter.com/AKL8meWiLl — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 12, 2015 Corbyn price on the Betfair exchange pic.twitter.com/ymMnpNwTcD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 13, 2015

The lucid Harvard professor who could make Hillary’s White House bid a bit less straightforward

The lucid Harvard professor who could make Hillary’s White House bid a bit less straightforward

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I don’t know how seriously to take this move by the prominent, and highly lucid, Harvard law professor who wants to become president and then stand down after getting effective campaign finance reforms enacted. His strength as a communicator are shown in his promotional video. The key test is whether his plan to “crowd source” his bid is successful. If this does take off in any way then the Hillary campaign could be most effected. Her current dominating position has…

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The practical guide to centre-left schisms

The practical guide to centre-left schisms

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The Labour party leadership election has left the Blairites looking isolated.  Some of Jeremy Corbyn’s supporters have described them as viruses and cancers, and have suggested that they look for the exit.  Every Blairite from Tony Blair and Liz Kendall downwards has disavowed the idea of leaving the Labour party, but vows are spoken to be broken, and given the bitterness and the ideological divide they might in due course consider their options. Before doing so, they should look at…

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