Why Corbyn might not win the Labour leadership

Why Corbyn might not win the Labour leadership

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All the ingredients for Corbyn to lose are there The Labour leadership contest seems to share a lot of the characteristics of the 2015 general election. We have the overwhelming enthusiastic social media support for a flawed candidate (that might not end up actually casting their vote), shy Tories*, the polls showing only outcome and betting sentiment heavily in favour of the polling outcome. We’ve only had two public polls on this leadership election and the potential sampling and weighting…

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The way’s clear for Carly Fiorina to take on Trump directly in the next GOP debate on September 16th

The way’s clear for Carly Fiorina to take on Trump directly in the next GOP debate on September 16th

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Carly Fiorina gets promoted to the top table for the Sep 16 CNN Republican nominee debate pic.twitter.com/vl1RXievEm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 2, 2015 CNN changes its rules so she can be at the top table One of the huge problems for US broadcasters is that so many people have declared themselves as contenders for the Republican party nomination. The current count is about 16 or 17 which clearly is far too big a number for a TV debate to…

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Getting ready for the expected Corbyn victory – leading party figures change their approach

Getting ready for the expected Corbyn victory – leading party figures change their approach

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Why have Umunna and others changed their tone on Corbyn? Because they don't want to be blamed if he fails. #r4today — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) September 2, 2015 Asked where he agrees with Corbyn, Umunna cites industrial strategy and changing the structure of the economy. #r4today — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) September 2, 2015 Umunna doesn't rule out serving in a Corbyn shadow cabinet if he changes his programme. But odds are still against it. #r4today — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) September…

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Reports say the EU referendum could be held as early as next April

Reports say the EU referendum could be held as early as next April

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.@BBCAllegra hs learned govt considering holding EU ref as early as April 2016 to exploit weakness of Corbyn-led Labour Party #newsnight — Ian Katz (@iankatz1000) September 1, 2015 On the day Cameron accepted the electoral commission suggestion to change the wording of the EU referendum question, and UKIP turned the OUT movement into a modern day equivalent of the People’s Front for Judea versus the Judean People’s Front, this is probably the most interesting news of the day. It may…

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Predict the winner and first round shares in the LAB leadership ELECTION in PB’s prize competition

Predict the winner and first round shares in the LAB leadership ELECTION in PB’s prize competition

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The closest will get a £100 free bet from William Hill Using the bespoke NoJam template you will need to enter vote shares down to decimal points for four contenders as well as naming the overall winner of the election. The prize will go to the person with the smallest overall error who has correctly named the winner. I am delighted to announce that William Hill has agreed to provide a competition prize of a free £100 bet. If the…

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September opens with Corbyn continuing to dominate the Lab betting but with a little bit more interest in Cooper

September opens with Corbyn continuing to dominate the Lab betting but with a little bit more interest in Cooper

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Eight more days before voting closes The LAB leadership Betting has been pretty stable since the YouGov poll last month that had Corbyn on 55% on first preferences. Inevitably he’s become the overwhelming favourite as can be seen by the chart. The only recent movement has been with Yvette Cooper who was out as a 5% chance last week and had seen a tightening. At the same time there has been a slight easing of the Corbyn price from a…

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Now most LAB leadership votes are in Osborne moves to undermine the likely winner

Now most LAB leadership votes are in Osborne moves to undermine the likely winner

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Guardian's Andrew Sparrow says Osborne’s Faslane announcement is CON plan to frame Corbyn. http://t.co/ApC9o124Zx pic.twitter.com/AU8XrBH9BD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 31, 2015 The Tory attack on Corbyn and his party has begun For the last four months the Tories have been almost totally disciplined about the LAB leadership election. There’ve been virtually no comments whatsoever in public until now. Today, with George Osborne’s Faslane announcement things have changed. This is Andrew Sparrow in the Guardian: “Osborne is keenly aware that…

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