Osborne edges up further in the next CON leader betting with Boris trailing a long way behind

Osborne edges up further in the next CON leader betting with Boris trailing a long way behind

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But history suggests that strong favourites end up as losers With all the focus today being on the George Osborne speech it is inevitable that there has been a fair amount of betting on whether he will in fact become David Cameron’s successor. His price has got really quite tight and at 38% I wonder whether that is just not offering value in a contest that could be several years away. Anything can happen in the meantime and George’s stark…

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Osborne’s speech: Content strong but his delivery not what you’d expect from a future leader

Osborne’s speech: Content strong but his delivery not what you’d expect from a future leader

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Osborne's delivery very poor. He'll need to improve dramatically if he wants to succeed Cameron pic.twitter.com/3OBe7BLPzP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 5, 2015 Lots of content and @George_Osborne is good in parliament but that delivery made John Major look like Demosthenes — Adam Boulton (@adamboultonTABB) October 5, 2015 Osborne's audience is rather subdued pic.twitter.com/29KCHCJBHc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 5, 2015 The PM listening to Osborne’s speech pic.twitter.com/1Gk2BP6Z3M — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 5, 2015 Given the CON successes of…

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The Guardian’s right – the Adonis move is a major coup for Osborne

The Guardian’s right – the Adonis move is a major coup for Osborne

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The Guardian main lead on Lord Adonis http://t.co/f5VIKvvhDx pic.twitter.com/69rq9jE7QG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 5, 2015 Are others waiting to follow the ex-LAB cabinet minister? It has been pointed out very strongly overnight that Lord Adonis has not left the Labour Party. Maybe. But instead of being a Labour peer he will in future sit with the crossbenchers in the House of Lords which is a big move. You can understand some of the frustration for Adonis. While he was…

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Lots of rumours going round of a major LAB figure about to quit the party

Lots of rumours going round of a major LAB figure about to quit the party

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I am hearing rumours of a high profile resignation from Labour tomorrow — Phillip Blond (@Phillip_Blond) October 4, 2015 Could it be linked to Osbo’s speech tomorrow? I’ve no information whatsoever but I just wonder whether we might see a high level defection from the red team to the blues. Osbo speaks tomorrow and he’s the sort of guy who could well be behind such a move. This might be nothing or it might be a major development. Philip Blond…

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Antifrank says what should we think about polling now?

Antifrank says what should we think about polling now?

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Most people were taken by surprise by the general election result in May.  Why?  Well, most people’s expectations were set by the abundance of opinion polls which by election day had settled on a consensus showing the two main parties neck and neck at around 33% or 34%.  The actual result, with the Conservatives on 37% and Labour on 31%, came as a bombshell.  (In fairness to the pollsters, they were not alone – David Cameron reportedly had not written…

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The buzzword bingo on Cameron’s conference speech

The buzzword bingo on Cameron’s conference speech

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The @LadPolitics market on what Cameron will say during his conference speech. https://t.co/1VsQqUikrJ pic.twitter.com/KgBB1oQ0hZ — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 4, 2015 Ladbrokes have a market up on “Which exact words or phrases will Cameron use in his Conference speech?” The normal caveat on this type of betting market needs to reiterated. These sorts of markets usually act as a bookmaker’s bonus found. However I do like the “You Can’t Trust Labour” at 5/1 as it would fit in with the pattern that the…

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