An armed coup if Boris or Corbyn became PM? An extraordinarily large number of people say it would have their support

An armed coup if Boris or Corbyn became PM? An extraordinarily large number of people say it would have their support

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44% of Ukip voters tell YouGov that they can envisage situations when they'd support armed forces coup in UK pic.twitter.com/hegZLZkFVs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 18, 2015 11% of CON voters & 6% of LAB ones tell YouGov that they’d support coup by armed forces if Corbyn became Prime Minister — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 18, 2015 12% of UKIP voters & 5% of CON ones tell YouGov that they’d support coup by armed forces if Boris became Prime Minister…

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Betting on the first Labour MP to resign the whip

Betting on the first Labour MP to resign the whip

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The @LadPolitics market on the first Labour MP to resign the party whip. https://t.co/bXDnYmtcG3 pic.twitter.com/PeS2ZEeqKy — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 17, 2015 Ladbrokes have a market up on who will be the first Labour MP to resign the Labour whip. With the forthcoming House of Commons vote on Trident’s replacement, you can see that turning into an epic omnishambles for Labour and CND’s newest Vice-President, Jeremy Corbyn. Given John Woodcock’s past pronouncements on what he were to do were Labour not to…

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ComRes: Osborne 6% behind Boris as “best PM” and just a third say that cutting tax credits is necessary

ComRes: Osborne 6% behind Boris as “best PM” and just a third say that cutting tax credits is necessary

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Conservatives have 13 point lead over Labour in new Sunday Mirror / Independent on Sunday Poll pic.twitter.com/zTgDXle97z — ComRes (@ComResPolls) October 17, 2015 39% say Boris would make a better PM than Osborne who is at 33%. But CON voters prefer Osborne to Boris by 48% to 34% CON lead now 13% in latest ComRes online poll for IoS/S Mirror CON 42% LAB 29-1 LD 7=    UKIP 13= No Corbyn bonus there ComRes Cameron & Osborne have and 19 point lead over…

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Rubio takes over the Republican nominee favourite slot on Betfair

Rubio takes over the Republican nominee favourite slot on Betfair

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Florida Senator Marco Rubio ousts ex-Florida governor, Jeb Bush, as GOP nominee Betfair betting favourite pic.twitter.com/TI0ObR5IG7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 17, 2015 How pathetic for @realdonaldtrump to criticize the president for 9/11. We were attacked & my brother kept us safe. — Jeb Bush (@JebBush) October 16, 2015 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

The US Presidential Election: David Herdson’s guide to analysis

The US Presidential Election: David Herdson’s guide to analysis

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Wikimedia Commons Ten tips for successful prediction The US presidential election is the biggest single political betting event, which is excellent news for serious analysts and players because it probably means that there’s a lot of amateur, uninformed money to be matched against. Not every election will produce a 50/1 winner but there’s nearly always value to be found for the astute. How? Here are some tips: 1. Follow US media: America is a different country Deceptively so. Some surface…

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Methinks that Osborne might have to U-turn on tax credits

Methinks that Osborne might have to U-turn on tax credits

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The exchange from last night’s Question Time The above clip from last night’s Question Time has been doing the rounds throughout the day and highlights the challenge facing minsters, particularly Osborne, over his budget tax credits move which is due to come into place in the next couple of months. With Boris and the Sun already pressing hard for change this is an issue that has the potential to hurt the blue team just when everything seemed to be going…

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This week’s Politicalbetting/Polling Matters podcast puts the focus on Monday’s Canadian General Election

This week’s Politicalbetting/Polling Matters podcast puts the focus on Monday’s Canadian General Election

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Will the Tories hang on? This week the Politicalbetting.com / Polling Matters podcast goes international and discusses the upcoming Canadian General Election that takes place on the 19th October. Is the Conservative PM Stephen Harper facing defeat to Liberal Justin Trudeau? How will the NDP do and how similar are Quebec and Scottish nationalism? Finally could the Canadian polls – currently showing the Liberals heading for victory – be wrong as the polls were in the UK? Keiran and Rob…

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For only the second time since May UKIP holds onto a ward in a local council by-election

For only the second time since May UKIP holds onto a ward in a local council by-election

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Chatteris on Cambridgeshire (UKIP defence) Result: United Kingdom Independence Party 600 (41% +6%), Conservative 590 (40% +6%), Liberal Democrat 274 (19% -2%) United Kingdom Independence Party HOLD with a majority of 10 (1%) on a neglible swing from Conservative to United Kingdom Independence Party Howgate on Cumbria (Lab defence) Result: Labour 436 (48% -12%), Conservative 304 (33% +2%), United Kingdom Independence Party 176 (19%, no candidate in 2013) Labour HOLD with a majority of 132 (15%) on a swing of…

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