The Lords vote to delay, not kill, Osborne’s tax credits plan

The Lords vote to delay, not kill, Osborne’s tax credits plan

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The motion to delay the tax credits changes which has been agreed pic.twitter.com/fpOjbsHnxU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2015 LAB peers don't back the Lib Dem motion which would have totally killed the tax credit plan pic.twitter.com/WXll9S7OMN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2015 Methinks that LAB decision not to vote for the killing of the tax credits changes might be seen as a mistake — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2015 Reminder: PB gathering Shooting Star Pub, London…

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Farage and UKIP the big gainers in the October Ipsos phone poll

Farage and UKIP the big gainers in the October Ipsos phone poll

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Farage up from -5% to +8% in latest Ipsos satisfaction ratings. pic.twitter.com/ZngyB8DhRt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2015 Chart with voting figures in latest Ipsos poll pic.twitter.com/MEqe2qbwTp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2015 42% say Corbyn and 39% say Cameron should not lead their parties at the general election – Ipsos polling pic.twitter.com/OG9wF1UMQv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2015

Flooding the Lords with 100s of new peers so several million people can be made poorer doesn’t sound like smart politics

Flooding the Lords with 100s of new peers so several million people can be made poorer doesn’t sound like smart politics

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The great Lords-Commons standoff Today, of course, the House of Lords gets to decide whether George Osborne’s controversial tax credits curtailment plan will go forward. Because of the way this is being pursued through Parliament, as a statutory instrument, this is a rare occasion when the Upper House can, if it wants to, block a major part of government policy. If this had been part of a finance bill then the House of Lords would have had no power to…

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The great grad-non grad voting divide in both the US and UK

The great grad-non grad voting divide in both the US and UK

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How US Republican voters who didn't go to college are driving the Trump surge. Table via @montie pic.twitter.com/E3gxnYaP4a — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2015 The above table highlights a big trend in the Republican primaries which has strong echoes in the UK. The quite different voting patterns of those who went to university and those who didn’t. In the US at the moment this is highlighted by the make up of those supporting Donald Trump for the GOP nomination….

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The Blue and the Purple – the threat of a Tory civil war over the EU

The Blue and the Purple – the threat of a Tory civil war over the EU

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Antifrank on the potential for a big divide David Cameron is a popular leader of the Conservative party.  He has consistently outpolled it, tugging it along in his wake.  His brisk, warm, unideological Conservativism (which is closer to the Christian Democracy found on the continent than to the Thatcherism that has prevailed in the Conservative party for the last 30 years in Britain) appeals to many. Many, but not all.  His leftwing opponents outside his party are predictable.  Less predictably,…

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Nick Palmer on why we shouldn’t pay too much attention to EU referendum polls

Nick Palmer on why we shouldn’t pay too much attention to EU referendum polls

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Voters aren’t pay much attention at the moment Membership of the EU is so central to many aspects of our political debate that almost everyone in politics has a strong view about it. We project that onto the electorate at large, and then puzzle over the small number of people who actually mention it as an issue that they worry about. Is it because the question is badly put, or because they’re concealing their strong feelings? No. Look at the…

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2016 should be the Republicans’ year for the White House

2016 should be the Republicans’ year for the White House

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The decline & decline of Jeb Bush in the Republican nomination betting. Was hot favourite – now a 16% chance pic.twitter.com/ZEuOVfyfjG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 24, 2015 But only if they can choose the right candidate Hillary Clinton will be the Democrats’ candidate for the presidency next year, short of falling under a bus. Sanders is far too left-wing to be electable and offers nothing beyond his base, Biden has announced he won’t run, and no-one else is on…

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How readers of the different national papers voted at GE2015

How readers of the different national papers voted at GE2015

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YouGov chart showing how readers of different national papers voteVia @JoeMurphyLondon pic.twitter.com/Tvswr1XHVO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2015 I love this chart which has just been produced by YouGov. It shows the splits of the readerships of the main national newspapers at the general election in May. Overall there’s nothing that’s really surprising though, perhaps, the fact that the Guardian has far fewer Lib Dem than the the FT,Times or the Telegraph comes as something as a surprise. Back…

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