The referendum: The last two months’ polls provide two very different pictures of what voters think

The referendum: The last two months’ polls provide two very different pictures of what voters think

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2 months of EU referendum polling. Notice how YouGov – subject of complaint from LEAVE, has had best OUT figures pic.twitter.com/DqQsWw5Csy — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 2, 2015 The phone surveys are best for IN online ones for OUT Trying to come to any conclusions from the referendum polling is difficult because there’s such a different pattern with the phone surveys painting a totally different picture of the race than the online ones. So in the past two weeks we’ve…

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Boris the favourite as betting opens on who’ll lead the EU LEAVE campaign

Boris the favourite as betting opens on who’ll lead the EU LEAVE campaign

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Ladbrokes betting on who will lead the LEAVE campaign pic.twitter.com/3eTZQK2Yc8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 2, 2015 Boris trails Nigel and Theresa in the polling As the referendum gets closer a key decision which could have huge impact on British politics in all sorts of ways is is who will lead the OUT campaign. Survation carried out some polling for LEAVE.EU and found:- Theresa May 22% Nigel Farage 18% Boris Johnson 14% These findings are somewhat surprising. I’d have expected…

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The Tories would be in a stronger position over the Lords if at GE2015 they’d attracted more than 36.9% of the vote

The Tories would be in a stronger position over the Lords if at GE2015 they’d attracted more than 36.9% of the vote

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@LordAshcroft Given the 36.9% national CON vote share at GE2015 that seems quite reasonable. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 1, 2015 National vote shares at GE2005 & GE2015 levels do matter Yesterday afternoon the Cameron biographer, pollster and former Tory treasurer, Lord Ashcroft, made the above perceptive Tweet about the limitations of the current government’s power. While in the 2010-2015 parliament this had been because of the Lib Dem coalition the reality now is that the Cameron government’s main limitation…

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Which Irish eyes will be smiling in 2016 – a look at next years Irish election by Richard Nabavi

Which Irish eyes will be smiling in 2016 – a look at next years Irish election by Richard Nabavi

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Part 1: The Basics 2016 is set to be a bumper year for political betting, with the Holyrood, London Mayoral and US Presidential elections coming up. But first there is another contest which should provide some excellent betting opportunities: the Irish General Election. It’s time to start doing our homework. When? The last election was held in February 2011, and the next must be held by the 8th April 2016. There had been speculation that the Taoiseach Enda Kenny would…

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Nick Palmer: An EU referendum REMAIN victory is a 75% chance

Nick Palmer: An EU referendum REMAIN victory is a 75% chance

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The factions that’ll make up the EU referendum battle In my last article, I argued that voters weren’t yet paying attention to the EU debate, but that I thought IN would win in the end. This article explains why. One of the charms of The Game of Thrones is the sheer variety of interacting factions, feuding, allying, and eyeing each other in guarded and temporary neutrality. The EU referendum is going to be just like that. It’s possible to identify…

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Antifrank on the impact of the big Lords Individual electoral registration vote

Antifrank on the impact of the big Lords Individual electoral registration vote

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It could be more significant than tax credits The House of Lords revolt on tax credits has got a huge amount of attention.  Less newsworthy, because it didn’t succeed, was an attempt in the House of Lords to delay the introduction of individual electoral registration by 12 months beyond the government’s proposed timetable.  The implications of that vote, however, may be more far-reaching.  What effect will it have? This post is going to be both long and technical.  That is…

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David Herdson writes: Ed Miliband: my part in his downfall

David Herdson writes: Ed Miliband: my part in his downfall

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Did I win the Conservatives the election? A year ago today I received an unsolicited e-mail from an extremely senior Conservative election strategist, asking if I ever came to London as he’d be interested in picking my brains. Unsurprisingly, I said ‘Yes’. The approach wasn’t completely out of the blue. A few months earlier, he was a speaker at the 2014 Yorkshire Regional conference and at the end of the session, I door-stepped him in order to hand him a…

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Tonight’s PB quickie poll and this week’s local elections results

Tonight’s PB quickie poll and this week’s local elections results

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Tonight's Politicalbetting pollWill George Osborne be David Cameron's successor as CON leader? — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 30, 2015 Risedale on Barrow in Furness (Lab defence) Result: Labour 428 (53% -24%), United Kingdom Independence Party 193 (24% +1%), Conservative 187 (23%, no candidate in 2015) Labour HOLD with a majority of 235 (29%) on a swing of 12.5% from Lab to UKIP Shenfield on Brentwood (Lib Dem defence) Result: Conservative 852 (57% +19%), Liberal Democrat 483 (33% -11%), United Kingdom…

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