The “Next PM” betting would be shaken up if David Miliband indicated that he’d like to return as an MP

The “Next PM” betting would be shaken up if David Miliband indicated that he’d like to return as an MP

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He’d be Hillary’s choice as PM This morning’s disparity on terror related issues between the shadow foreign secretary, Hillary Benn, and Mr Corbyn highlights a problem for LAB that is not going to go away. The leader holds views that are way out of kilter with many of his party’s MPs not just his choice as shadow foreign secretary. A problem, of course, is that when the media senses blood it’ll go on looking for splits. Other shadow ministers will…

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The GOP nomination race: Unless the mainstream politicians make inroads soon Trump could become unassailable

The GOP nomination race: Unless the mainstream politicians make inroads soon Trump could become unassailable

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Carson’s slipping in state polls Above is the latest Real Clear Politics Polling Average and the big story remains. None of the mainstream politicians have managed to gain real traction while Trump remains very strong. The latest average probably overstates Carson who had a troubled start to November which is starting to be picked up in the state polls. A new survey for the first full primary state, New Hampshire, has Carson in sharp reverse with Trump 22% ahead of the…

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Meanwhile in Oldham….

Meanwhile in Oldham….

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via @PSbook . UKIP produce "fake" LAB leaflet in Oldham pic.twitter.com/NJsZsSzRke — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 16, 2015 UKIP thinks Corbyn is a negative for LAB – but how much of a negative? I’ve never been convinced by the above style approach to campaigning which is quite common – a mock leaflet that looks as though it has come from your opponent. This is the sort of thing that activists really like but does it get through to potential LAB…

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Why Jeremy Hunt might be onto a loser in his fight with the doctors

Why Jeremy Hunt might be onto a loser in his fight with the doctors

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Antifrank on  “picking your battles carefully” The government is heading for a major confrontation with junior doctors over pay restructuring. Jeremy Hunt is looking to change their terms of employment to facilitate his vision of a seven day a week health service. Junior doctors feel that the revised terms pull the rug from under them. They feel that Jeremy Hunt is spoiling for a fight and that he is looking to impose his terms on them. As a result, they…

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Corbyn’s power within LAB will soon hinge on perceptions of his likely general election performance

Corbyn’s power within LAB will soon hinge on perceptions of his likely general election performance

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He needs to look like a potential winner not a loser For the moment at least Mr Corbyn’s authority within the Labour Party derives directly from the sheer scale of his victory in the leadership election in September. His winning margin, of course, was even greater than that of Tony Blair’s in 1994. So whenever questions are raised as is inevitable within the Parliamentary Labour Party given his lack of support there, his team will point to the September voting…

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Antifrank looks at where the EU referendum will be won and lost

Antifrank looks at where the EU referendum will be won and lost

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Picture: The classic 90s game, Lemmings. Referenda are odd affairs.  Two sides, both of which are passionately invested in the success or failure of the proposition, seek to woo disproportionate numbers of far less interested voters to their respective causes.  Votes are counted, not marked out of ten for enthusiasm.  Each side must resist the temptation to make arguments that fascinate those who are already-engaged but which make the barely engaged switch off. Activists on both sides of the EU…

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Another reason why Cameron shouldn’t hold the referendum next June

Another reason why Cameron shouldn’t hold the referendum next June

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Was this the match that lost the 1970 election for Harold Wilson and ultimately ushered us into the European Community? Most of the country will be focussing on the football next June. Since the second world war, the greatest general election upset was not 2015 nor 1992, but Harold Wilson’s surprise loss in 1970. Most of the polls and the commentariat expected Labour to win a majority comfortably yet the Ted Heath’s Tories won a majority. Some have attributed Labour’s…

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After the second Democratic Party debate Clinton remains the overwhelming favourite to get the nomination

After the second Democratic Party debate Clinton remains the overwhelming favourite to get the nomination

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Last night we had the second Democratic Party Presidential debate and the tragic events of Paris were discussed. Clinton’s past record came under scrutiny, first her support for the 2003 Iraq War (which Sanders said helped the rise of ISIS) and her tenure as Secretary of State. She came through all of this largely unscathed. Where she made a mistake was when the issue of the large donations she’s received from Wall Street, she said it was down to the…

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