Carson’s slipping in state polls
Above is the latest Real Clear Politics Polling AverageÂ and the big story remains. None of the mainstream politicians have managed to gain real traction while Trump remains very strong.
The latest average probably overstates Carson who had a troubled start to November which is starting to be picked up in the state polls. A new survey for the first full primary state, New Hampshire, has Carson in sharp reverse with Trump 22% ahead of the former neuro-surgeon with an interesting back story.
Jebb Bush looks totally out of it though he still has a huge war-chest at his disposal.
Past experience suggests that the eventual nominee has to win either Iowa or New Hampshire – the first two states to decide. In neither at the moment are we seeing strong support for any of the mainstream contenders and time is running out.
Because of the presence of Trump as a contender there’s been much more public interest in the race than we usually see at this stage. The GOP TV debates have been attracting record audiences and the campaign is getting more media attention.