How Corbyn compares with Trump on the betting markets & other Saturday afternoon points

How Corbyn compares with Trump on the betting markets & other Saturday afternoon points

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Next President & next PM betting On Betfair Corbyn's rated as an 8,3% chance to become next PM. That's almost the same as the 8.6% chance of Trump becoming President — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 20, 2015 IDS’s and JC’s leadership elections Corbyn's 59.5% LAB leadership vote share compares with Duncan Smith's 60.7% in 2001 CON contest. 2 years & 2 months later IDS was booted out — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 20, 2015 ComRes favourability numbers coming up but…

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Time to back Biden (if you can)

Time to back Biden (if you can)

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  It may be worth having a cover against Hillary US presidential elections are brilliant. The fractal-like complexity of the process by which someone ends up in the White House provides endless scope for novelists, script-writers and conspiracy theorists to come up with weird and wonderful ways for the most implausible individuals to follow in the footsteps of Washington, Lincoln, Roosevelts and Obama. And in theory, they could. The reality, of course, is that the nominations are usually all but…

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Why it might not be wise for UKIP to go too hard on expenses and allowances in Oldham

Why it might not be wise for UKIP to go too hard on expenses and allowances in Oldham

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This from the UKIP candidate https://twitter.com/JohnBickleyUKIP/status/667486529389010944 And a bit of history Since 1999 more people elected as UKIP MEPs have been jailed for expenses fraud than the number of MPs the party has at Westminster — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2015

Leader of the Opposition is the toughest job in British politics. If Jeremy didn’t know it before, he knows it now.

Leader of the Opposition is the toughest job in British politics. If Jeremy didn’t know it before, he knows it now.

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From a LAB perspective: Donald Brind’s weekly column The Bishop of Chichester George Bell was celebrated in a BBC Radio Great Lives programme a couple of years ago for a wartime speech in the House of Lords condemning the bombing of German civilians. Bell was no pacifist but he argued that “ to justify methods inhumane in themselves by arguments of expediency smacks of the Nazi philosophy that Might is Right.“ The speech was made in February 1944, months before Allied boots…

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This weeks PB/Polling Matters podcast seeks to find out what UK Muslims really think about terrorism

This weeks PB/Polling Matters podcast seeks to find out what UK Muslims really think about terrorism

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And how is public opinion changing on Syria? On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran speaks to Tom Mludzinski of ComRes about the firm’s polling among British Muslims earlier this year before speaking with Maria Sobolewska from the University of Manchester about her work looking at Muslim public opinion in the UK on terrorism and other issues. We then close the show with Tom Mludzinski again explaining how support for military action in Syria has increased since last…

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The return of Marf and tonight’s local by-election review by Harry Hayfield

The return of Marf and tonight’s local by-election review by Harry Hayfield

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Welcome back Marf Watton (UKIP defence) and South Smallburgh (Lib Dem defence) on Norfolk Result of council at last election (2013): Conservative 40, United Kingdom Independence Party 15, Labour 14, Liberal Democrats 10, Green Party 4, Independent 1 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 3) Result of ward at last election (2013): Watton: United Kingdom Independence Party 808 (34%), Conservative 662 (27%), Independent 569 (24%), Labour 270 (11%), Green Party 102 (4%) Candidates duly nominated: Timothy Birt (Green), Claire Bowes…

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Corbyn has the best satisfaction ratings of any leader in today’s Ipsos poll

Corbyn has the best satisfaction ratings of any leader in today’s Ipsos poll

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Farron ahead of Cameron November Ipsos pollIn net terms Corbyn has the best figures of any of the party leaders pic.twitter.com/UUHZhnHWH4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2015 UKIP drops to just 7% At last. Full details of today's Ipsos poll. Good for CON. UKIP drop to 7% – same as LDs pic.twitter.com/UhwyY553qq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2015

The battles between Corbyn and his MPs are not going to go away

The battles between Corbyn and his MPs are not going to go away

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“…the question of deselection, be it of Jeremy Corbyn or of recalcitrant MPs, will persist. True unity will not be achieved until the PLP reflects the leader, or the leader reflects the PLP. “It’s pretty nasty. This is not the fraternal Labour Party I know,” Ian Lavery, a Corbyn supporter, told me. The continuation of “internal warfare”, he warned, would lead to “unmitigated disaster”.- George Eaton New Statesman So far it’s not been a good week for Mr Corbyn. Clearly…

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