If the parliamentary Tory party had followed the polling in 1990 John Major would not have become PM

If the parliamentary Tory party had followed the polling in 1990 John Major would not have become PM

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  Ten days before he became Tory leader, only 5% of voters preferred John Major as Tory leader. Via @majorsrise pic.twitter.com/fEmGNRQmtC — TSE (@TSEofPB) November 22, 2015 Often winning the Tory leadership is about who you aren’t not about who you are. Twenty-five years ago today Lady Thatcher announced her decision to resign as Prime Minister, but if the parliamentary Tory party had followed the polling then her successor would not have been John Major but Michael Heseltine. The above…

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CON leads moves to 15% with ComRes online while Corbyn sees 10% drop in his favourability ratings

CON leads moves to 15% with ComRes online while Corbyn sees 10% drop in his favourability ratings

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VOTING INTENTION Con 42% (NC) Lab 27% (-2) LD 7% (NC) UKIP 15% (+2) Green 3% (NC) SNP 5% (NC) Other 1% (NC) And Osbo’s leadership hopes take another blow The ComRes leader ratings paint a very different picture from that which we saw from Ipsos earlier in the week. This is down to the question. ComRes ask favourability questions while the Ipsos-MORI rating relates to leader satisfaction. The latter found 28% of 2015 CON voters saying they are satisfied…

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How Corbyn compares with Trump on the betting markets & other Saturday afternoon points

How Corbyn compares with Trump on the betting markets & other Saturday afternoon points

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Next President & next PM betting On Betfair Corbyn's rated as an 8,3% chance to become next PM. That's almost the same as the 8.6% chance of Trump becoming President — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 20, 2015 IDS’s and JC’s leadership elections Corbyn's 59.5% LAB leadership vote share compares with Duncan Smith's 60.7% in 2001 CON contest. 2 years & 2 months later IDS was booted out — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 20, 2015 ComRes favourability numbers coming up but…

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Time to back Biden (if you can)

Time to back Biden (if you can)

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  It may be worth having a cover against Hillary US presidential elections are brilliant. The fractal-like complexity of the process by which someone ends up in the White House provides endless scope for novelists, script-writers and conspiracy theorists to come up with weird and wonderful ways for the most implausible individuals to follow in the footsteps of Washington, Lincoln, Roosevelts and Obama. And in theory, they could. The reality, of course, is that the nominations are usually all but…

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Why it might not be wise for UKIP to go too hard on expenses and allowances in Oldham

Why it might not be wise for UKIP to go too hard on expenses and allowances in Oldham

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This from the UKIP candidate https://twitter.com/JohnBickleyUKIP/status/667486529389010944 And a bit of history Since 1999 more people elected as UKIP MEPs have been jailed for expenses fraud than the number of MPs the party has at Westminster — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2015

Leader of the Opposition is the toughest job in British politics. If Jeremy didn’t know it before, he knows it now.

Leader of the Opposition is the toughest job in British politics. If Jeremy didn’t know it before, he knows it now.

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From a LAB perspective: Donald Brind’s weekly column The Bishop of Chichester George Bell was celebrated in a BBC Radio Great Lives programme a couple of years ago for a wartime speech in the House of Lords condemning the bombing of German civilians. Bell was no pacifist but he argued that “ to justify methods inhumane in themselves by arguments of expediency smacks of the Nazi philosophy that Might is Right.“ The speech was made in February 1944, months before Allied boots…

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This weeks PB/Polling Matters podcast seeks to find out what UK Muslims really think about terrorism

This weeks PB/Polling Matters podcast seeks to find out what UK Muslims really think about terrorism

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And how is public opinion changing on Syria? On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran speaks to Tom Mludzinski of ComRes about the firm’s polling among British Muslims earlier this year before speaking with Maria Sobolewska from the University of Manchester about her work looking at Muslim public opinion in the UK on terrorism and other issues. We then close the show with Tom Mludzinski again explaining how support for military action in Syria has increased since last…

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The return of Marf and tonight’s local by-election review by Harry Hayfield

The return of Marf and tonight’s local by-election review by Harry Hayfield

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Welcome back Marf Watton (UKIP defence) and South Smallburgh (Lib Dem defence) on Norfolk Result of council at last election (2013): Conservative 40, United Kingdom Independence Party 15, Labour 14, Liberal Democrats 10, Green Party 4, Independent 1 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 3) Result of ward at last election (2013): Watton: United Kingdom Independence Party 808 (34%), Conservative 662 (27%), Independent 569 (24%), Labour 270 (11%), Green Party 102 (4%) Candidates duly nominated: Timothy Birt (Green), Claire Bowes…

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