My six takeaways from Labour’s sensational win in Oldham

My six takeaways from Labour’s sensational win in Oldham

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The default assumption when parties talk about “internal polling” should be that they are lying From the Telegraph 6 days ago. UKIP "private polling" https://t.co/UmvQ4C48hc pic.twitter.com/oodjyDffh2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2015 The assumption that Oldham’s Tory voters would switch to UKIP was wrong It has often been said that of all party supporters followers of the blue team are least likely to vote tactically and this was seen again last night. The idea that a large slab of…

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Labour win the Oldham West and Royton by election with an increased share of the vote

Labour win the Oldham West and Royton by election with an increased share of the vote

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LAB 62.2% (+7.5)UKIP 23.3 % (+2.7) CON 9.3% (-9.6) LD 3.7% (+0.0) GR 0.9% (-1.0) MRLP 0.5% (+0.5) via @britainelects pic.twitter.com/1nTrPjwFZC — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 4, 2015 Corbyn has done better than Cameron did in his first by election that he defended as leader. This is the result that wasn’t forecast, perhaps Jeremy Corbyn isn’t the voter repellent that the polling and the commentariat implies. Speaking this evening John Curtice has just said we expect the major opposition parties do…

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The PB Oldham Prediction and this week’s local by-elections

The PB Oldham Prediction and this week’s local by-elections

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The average predictions in our prize competition Ash South and Tongham on Guildford (Con defence) Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 35, Liberal Democrats 9, Guildford Greenbelt 3, Labour 1 (Conservative majority of 22) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 2,299, 2,199, 2,104 (43%) Labour 1,113 (21%) Guildford Greenbelt 999 (19%) Liberal Democrats 900, 665 (17%) Candidates duly nominated: George Dokimakis (Lab), Andrew Gomm (Con), Kyle Greaves (UKIP), Alan Hilliar (Lib Dem), Ramsey…

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Wulfrun Phil says the Syria vote could decide the LAB succession

Wulfrun Phil says the Syria vote could decide the LAB succession

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Great picture via @MattChorley of Corbyn and Hillary Bennpic.twitter.com/GA5NG0Qtmp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 3, 2015 But it may not work to Hilary Benn’s advantage As the odds on Hilary Benn succeeding Jeremy Corbyn shorten, the political betting market is clear in its prediction – that the successor to Corbyn is very likely to be one of those who supported air strikes in yesterday’s vote. Almost all of those with the shortest odds come from that camp – Benn at…

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On by-election day there’s a new favourite in the race for next Labour leader – Hilary Benn

On by-election day there’s a new favourite in the race for next Labour leader – Hilary Benn

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A speech that could have great significance Of all the speeches in the long commons debate yesterday one stands out – the winding up in a packed chamber by “Wedgie-Benn’s son”, Hilary, who is now Labour’s shadow foreign secretary. If you didn’t see it the little clip above is quite extraordinary with Benn getting huge applause from across the chamber. What’s striking is that throughout his leader, Mr, Corbyn, was sitting alongside and he, of course, has a totally different…

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The Syria vote: Cameron looks set to win but how many LAB MPs will back him?

The Syria vote: Cameron looks set to win but how many LAB MPs will back him?

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Now count 130 Labour MPs who've indicated they're likely to vote Against, 54 who've indicated they're likely to vote For #SyriaVote — Joe Oliver (@joe_oliver) December 2, 2015 Just over an hour to go to the big vote Voting takes place at 10pm and the result should be known within about 16 minutes. Then there’ll be the wait, not too long, for the division lists so we can see who has not followed their parties. There will be Tory rebels…

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Syria – the big debate goes on

Syria – the big debate goes on

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Will bombing #ISIS make a UK terror attack more likely? Most Brits think not #Syriavote pic.twitter.com/knRaPZ6d06 — Andrew Hawkins (@PigsAndPolling) December 2, 2015 Tim Farron backing air strikes. "This is toughest call I have ever had to make, and certainly in this House". Cites UN resolution &refugees. — Patrick Wintour (@patrickwintour) December 2, 2015 Great speeches by Labour's lost leaders (Alan Johnson and @YvetteCooperMP) in #SyriaVote — Jason Beattie (@JBeattieMirror) December 2, 2015

The Commons might be about to vote for Syrian air strikes but the public is becoming less convinced

The Commons might be about to vote for Syrian air strikes but the public is becoming less convinced

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Support for air strikes against Syria falling sharply pic.twitter.com/LxnWVMKTsJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 1, 2015 Men strongly in favour – women much less certain As we come to the crucial Commons vote on Syria there’s new YouGov polling in the Times this morning that suggests that support for British action is declining with, now, fewer than half of those sampled approving. YouGov had this at 48%. The affairs impacting on the Labour leadership appear to have overshadowed the movement…

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