You can get her at 5/1 as GOP V-P nominee With only 11 days to go before the Iowa caucuses the former Governor of Alaska and 2008 VP candidate, Sarah Palin, flew into the state last night and endorsed Donald Trump for the Presidency. This is the first state to decide and where the property billionaire turned TV star, Donald Trump, is competing now in second place in most polls. In the betting Ted Cruz remains the favourite to win…
YouGov chart on Cameron & Corbyn's net well/badly ratings since September. pic.twitter.com/va1vqDGnOG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 19, 2016 Corbyn's ratings continues to decline continues with YouGov. Real worry is lack of support from GE LAB voters pic.twitter.com/QKlploodZB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 19, 2016 55% of LAB GE2015 voters tell YouGov that's it's unlikely that party will win next election if Corbyn remains. pic.twitter.com/GBIZJVVT1u — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 19, 2016
Gallup Arguably Gallup has the right approach for the future The screen grab above is from the Election 2016 page of Gallup – the firm that created modern political polling in the 1930s. Its busy with lots of data, analysis and often excellent insights but one thing that you won’t find are voting intention polls. After a lacklustre performance with its voting numbers at WH2012 the firm took the strategic decision to drop that aspect for WH2016 and focus on…
The main conclusion It cannot rule out herding The late swing theory There’s a conference in London this afternoon which I will be attending. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
The raw data on GE2015 vote in latest ICM poll. The problem continues.. pic.twitter.com/ARwSzJIhAs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2016 Latest ICM phone poll with changes on DecCON 40%+1LAV 35%+1LD 6%-1UKIP 10%= — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2016 Highlighting the challenge for pollsters on the evening before the GE2015 failure investigation reports I will after all be able to attend tomorrow’s big event in London when the investigation into what went wrong with the GE2015 polling reveals its…
Via @mtomasky My favourite Twitter pic of the weekend pic.twitter.com/Ps6MPVx08o — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2016 Hillary to be Democratic nominee now 82.6% chance on Betfair following overnight debate success pic.twitter.com/AB2dbxv4Ag — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2016 From. Pew Research. How the US has become more ideologically dividedpic.twitter.com/HQVJTWJ3ua — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2016 Via @politicalwire Gallup favourability of GOP contenders. Look at how hated Trump is amongst Democrats pic.twitter.com/XRHFHUN36B — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 16, 2016
Remember what happened at GE2010 and the last London Mayoral election This week’s polling news is going to be dominated by the publication tomorrow of the inquiry into what went wrong the GE2015 polls when all the firms undershot the Tory share by big margins. Unfortunately I’m at a memorial service tomorrow and won’t be able to attend the big event. In the build up we’ve started seeing some interesting explanations including one which suggests that CON voters are much…
Not even pledges by menhir could help Ed Miliband win a general election pic.twitter.com/7YVLtPG7xp — TSE (@TSEofPB) January 17, 2016 With Corbyn’s personal polling ranging from the calamitous to the cataclysmic it appears Labour are intent on repeating the mistakes of the 2015 general election This week sees two important reports published, firstly the BPC inquiry into why the polls were wrong, then there’s the publication of the report by Dame Margaret Beckett into why Labour lost, parts of Beckett’s…