If indeed it was “herding” who can blame the pollsters?

If indeed it was “herding” who can blame the pollsters?

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So much rests on the final General Election poll I like the above chart from yesterday’s polling investigation presentation which does suggest that deliberately or not the overall affect was that a pattern that appeared like herding happened. I don’t blame the pollsters. So much is stake with their final election polls. It is something they can be judged on for the years that follow. Perhaps we need a more sensible approach to polling generally. As I’ve stated GE2015 has…

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Now the talk is of a Donald Trump Sarah Palin ticket

Now the talk is of a Donald Trump Sarah Palin ticket

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You can get her at 5/1 as GOP V-P nominee With only 11 days to go before the Iowa caucuses the former Governor of Alaska and 2008 VP candidate, Sarah Palin, flew into the state last night and endorsed Donald Trump for the Presidency. This is the first state to decide and where the property billionaire turned TV star, Donald Trump, is competing now in second place in most polls. In the betting Ted Cruz remains the favourite to win…

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More poor leader ratings for Mr Corbyn

More poor leader ratings for Mr Corbyn

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YouGov chart on Cameron & Corbyn's net well/badly ratings since September. pic.twitter.com/va1vqDGnOG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 19, 2016 Corbyn's ratings continues to decline continues with YouGov. Real worry is lack of support from GE LAB voters pic.twitter.com/QKlploodZB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 19, 2016 55% of LAB GE2015 voters tell YouGov that's it's unlikely that party will win next election if Corbyn remains. pic.twitter.com/GBIZJVVT1u — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 19, 2016

UK pollsters should follow the firm that created the industry and move on from party vote shares

UK pollsters should follow the firm that created the industry and move on from party vote shares

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Gallup Arguably Gallup has the right approach for the future The screen grab above is from the Election 2016 page of Gallup – the firm that created modern political polling in the 1930s. Its busy with lots of data, analysis and often excellent insights but one thing that you won’t find are voting intention polls. After a lacklustre performance with its voting numbers at WH2012 the firm took the strategic decision to drop that aspect for WH2016 and focus on…

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If GE2015 had gone the way that today’s ICM sample remembered voting EdM would be PM

If GE2015 had gone the way that today’s ICM sample remembered voting EdM would be PM

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The raw data on GE2015 vote in latest ICM poll. The problem continues.. pic.twitter.com/ARwSzJIhAs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2016 Latest ICM phone poll with changes on DecCON 40%+1LAV 35%+1LD 6%-1UKIP 10%= — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2016 Highlighting the challenge for pollsters on the evening before the GE2015 failure investigation reports I will after all be able to attend tomorrow’s big event in London when the investigation into what went wrong with the GE2015 polling reveals its…

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Two weeks to go until Iowa: White House Race Round up

Two weeks to go until Iowa: White House Race Round up

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Via @mtomasky My favourite Twitter pic of the weekend pic.twitter.com/Ps6MPVx08o — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2016 Hillary to be Democratic nominee now 82.6% chance on Betfair following overnight debate success pic.twitter.com/AB2dbxv4Ag — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2016 From. Pew Research. How the US has become more ideologically dividedpic.twitter.com/HQVJTWJ3ua — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 18, 2016 Via @politicalwire Gallup favourability of GOP contenders. Look at how hated Trump is amongst Democrats pic.twitter.com/XRHFHUN36B — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 16, 2016

It is a mistake to assume that all polling bias is against the Tories

It is a mistake to assume that all polling bias is against the Tories

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Remember what happened at GE2010 and the last London Mayoral election This week’s polling news is going to be dominated by the publication tomorrow of the inquiry into what went wrong the GE2015 polls when all the firms undershot the Tory share by big margins. Unfortunately I’m at a memorial service tomorrow and won’t be able to attend the big event. In the build up we’ve started seeing some interesting explanations including one which suggests that CON voters are much…

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