7 days till Iowa. How the polls did in previous electionshttps://t.co/d28erYivkh pic.twitter.com/iTFgroQNXF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 25, 2016 ARG Democratic poll in Iowa has Sanders 48% Clinton 45%GOP race Trump 33% Cruz 26%https://t.co/L1APSJBxtl — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 25, 2016
The next general election, of course is unlikely to be between Corbyn’s LAB and Cameron’s CON. The latter has made his exit intentions partially clear though we don’t know whether it’ll be before the election or afterwards. There’s doubt on the Labour side as well. Interestingly in recent days PB’s two LAB post writers, Henry G and Donald Brind, have both suggested that they don’t thing Corbyn will be there at the election. Whatever the chart above can only be…
Many punters lost a lot of money that night One of the great nights on PB was the New Hampshire primary in January 2008. It came a week after the Iowa caucuses where Obama pulled off a significant victory. Interest was intense as one of the two main parties look set to be the first in US history not to select a white man as nominee. Following Iowa the media narrative was all on Obama and the final polls for…
Embed from Getty Images Alastair Meeks on the unknown First Minister Part of the United Kingdom got a new leader earlier this month. You probably missed this: most people did. Following the usual tortuous process that its politics always seems to entail, Northern Ireland now has a new First Minister. Arlene Foster took over as First Minister (the first woman to hold that role in Northern Ireland) on 11 January 2016. She is also the first female leader of the…
Reflecting on a dispiriting week for the red team Corbyn’s tent suddenly looks a lot smaller after the loss of policy chief Neale Coleman.  a big loss. “If you want them to eat chicken, don’t lay out a buffetâ€. That’s a favourite piece of advice from a Lefty friend who I work with offering training in media skills to progressive folk in the Labour movement and charities. The point of the advice is — focus on your key message and don’t get…
If the 2015 general election had been fought under PR, the Tories would most likely still be in government (probably in coalition with UKIP) There’s a very interesting story in today’s Independent on Sunday. Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat leader, is in secret talks with Jeremy Corbyn about voting reform in a bid to form a progressive electoral alliance against the Conservatives. Mr Farron’s aides are talking to a Labour MP a close ally of Mr Corbyn who is acting…
The polling inquiry should have considered alternatives to standard voting intentions While everybody else has been obsessing about voting intention numbers I’ve been looking at how the pollsters did with their lead rating last May and the big picture is in the chart above. This shows the percentage in each of the samples that gave positive ratings to Mr. Cameron and Mr. Miliband. In the final few days five pollsters asked leader rating questions and the results are featured above….
Can he beat Clinton and if so, the Republican? In contrast to all the interest that the Republicans have delivered in their pre-primary contest, the Democrats’ affair has been a low-key, staid affair so far: two candidates plus an also-ran, of which one has been an overwhelming favourite for a long time, backed with huge financial and political muscle; the other, a 74-year-old self-described socialist who has never even run for election as a Democrat before. It ought to be…