The coming battle of the appointment of next Supreme Court judge will dominate US politics throughout the WH2016 campaign

The coming battle of the appointment of next Supreme Court judge will dominate US politics throughout the WH2016 campaign

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NEW @CapX/@YouGov: By 57% to 37% Obama should nominate Scalia's successor https://t.co/IakiSVeZsn #PortraitOfAmerica pic.twitter.com/s1nMY0IQp9 — Tim Montgomerie (@MontieUSA) February 14, 2016 This is how the New York Times is reporting the ensuing battle in Washington over the appointment of a replacement on the Supreme Court for Justice Scalia who died over the weekend. “WASHINGTON — An epic Washington political battle took shape on Sunday after the death of Justice Antonin Scalia as Senate Republicans dug in and said they would…

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The detailed data that suggests that Corbyn’s own generation, those of 65+, appear to have given up on Labour

The detailed data that suggests that Corbyn’s own generation, those of 65+, appear to have given up on Labour

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Amongst Corbyn's own age group, those of 65+, just 11% tell ComRes they have favourable view of LAB leader, 71% say unfavourable — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 14, 2016 Pensioners are the fastest growing age group The figures above speak for themselves. They are based on a subsample of 471 which gives us a greater level of confidence. Those within this segment are more likely to be on the register and much more likely to vote. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB…

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Bush gets his mojo back in the most explosive GOP debate yet

Bush gets his mojo back in the most explosive GOP debate yet

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He’s the only one ready to tak on Trump Just caught up on the overnight GOP TV debate ahead of next weekend’s crucial South Carolina primary and what a humdinger it was. The 5.1 contenders still in the race (Carson is the 0.1) were at each other hammer and tongues right from the start. It made great TV. Having fewer of them on the stage is producing greater clarity and allowed much greater inter-reaction. What impressed me was how Jeb…

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Alastair Meeks looks at the theory of referendum motivation

Alastair Meeks looks at the theory of referendum motivation

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At the height of the Second World War, Abraham Maslow unveiled an important new theory of psychology.  Synthesising physical and higher needs, he arranged the drivers of human behaviour in the form of a pyramid.  At the bottom, he placed physiological needs – the physical impulses that drive every animal.  Above that he placed safety and security needs.  Rising further up the pyramid, he placed love and belongingness needs, the personal emotional connections.  Near the top of the pyramid, he…

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William Hill makes it 7/1 that Cameron will step down this year

William Hill makes it 7/1 that Cameron will step down this year

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A good bet not? William Hill say political punters have been backing David Cameron to stand down as Tory leader either this year or next, in anticipation of either a defeat or only narrow win in the EU Referendum, which has to take place before the end of 2017. Hills currently offer 7/1 that Cameron will stand down this year, and 10/1 that he’ll go next. It is a 4/11 chance that the Referendum produces a ‘Stay’ result, 2/1 that…

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The hurdles Hillary has to surmount are getting higher

The hurdles Hillary has to surmount are getting higher

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She might lose the nomination never mind the general election Eugene Debs must be grinning in his grave. OK, Bernie Sanders isn’t quite the firebrand radical that Debs was a hundred years ago but the notion that there is a credible route for a self-declared socialist to the White House is one that only a few months ago would have been dismissed with derision. Not now. Two polls released yesterday give the Independent Senator for Vermont genuine cause for hope….

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UKIP vote down sharply in all this week’s local by-elections

UKIP vote down sharply in all this week’s local by-elections

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Crompton (Lab defence) on Bolton Result: Labour 1,961 (73% +13%), UKIP 320 (12% -9%), Conservative 302 (11% -1%), Liberal Democrat 117 (4% unchanged) Labour HOLD with a majority of 1,641 (61%) on a swing of 11% from UKIP to Labour Lower Stoke (Lab defence) on Coventry Result: Labour 1,235 (57% +10%), Conservative 344 (16% +1%), UKIP 290 (13% -11%), Green Party 165 (8% +1%), Liberal Democrat 124 (6%, no candidate in 2014) Labour HOLD with a majority of 891 (41%)…

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