As the Junior Doctor furore continues, bookmakers William Hill have opened a market on whether Secretary of State for Health Jeremy Hunt will still be in his role on January 1, 2017. He is odds-on to survive in the job and the bookie quotes odds of 8/11 that he is still in post on Jan 1, 2017. It is evens that he will leave the position before that date. The polling suggests that Hunt is finding it hard to take…
Where does the battle for Obama’s successor stand now? Although the outcome in both the Republican and Democratic races in the New Hampshire primary was completely in line with the polls the results have come as a massive shock. One thing’s for sure – previous assumptions about how US elections work don’t apply any more and we look forward with a great degree of uncertainty. This was also the biggest political betting event since the UK General Election last May….
Cameron’s “deal” not going down well After a stormy week during which he’s come under sustained attack from the papers that were so supportive last May the latest ICM EURef poll has LEAVE taking the lead for the first time. The figures are. LEAVE 42+3 REMAIN 41-1 This is just one point and a lot narrower than the 9% LEAVE lead that YouGov recently reported but it does reinforce that the general direction is to BREXIT. Of course these were…
Iowa and New Hampshire have slimmed the GOP field down What a night and what an outcome. The contender who was deemed to have “won” the last debate, Chris Christie failed to make an impact in NH and returned to New Jersey to consider his position. Given that Christie’s final act had been his debate destruction of Rubio only a few days ago it seemed that others benefited from him taking down the one who became favourite after Iowa. Maybe…
If Hillary can keep the gap in single figures she claim to be the “comeback kid” As we saw after last week’s Iowa caucuses this stage in the White House race everything is all about expectations. So although Cruz won last week all the attention went on Rubio who did a fair bit better than expected. Trump, quite remarkably, has led led in every single New Hampshire poll  since June – all  75 of them. He went into today’s New…
A look at the referendum’s salience Last Monday, UKIP wandered into another of their controversies over gay rights. Alan Craig, who has in the past called equality campaigners the Gaystapo and described gay marriage as being as bad as the Nazi invasion of Poland, has been selected as a candidate for the London Assembly. Most UKIP supporters are frustrated by the fuss. They don’t believe in a relationship between sexuality and meteorology but really don’t see the views of some…
All the New Hampshire polls have Trump ahead in the GOP race. 2nd place is a different story… pic.twitter.com/qDgeBeCGs8 — Jonathan Jones (@J_I_Jones) February 9, 2016 It’s primary election day in New Hampshire – the first full one of the 2016 campaign and the big developments over the past 24 hours have been on the Governor of Ohio John Kasich. He made an early decision to focus all his early effort on New Hampshire and judging by the polling has…