Generally on days like this George Osborne improves his Betfair “Next PM” chances

Generally on days like this George Osborne improves his Betfair “Next PM” chances

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Osbo, who in Sept was 50% chance on Betfair next PM market – now down to 26%. Will today see him go up or down? pic.twitter.com/5RcwuKaPZU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 25, 2015 Why my money’s gone on the Chancellor this morning Today’s the chancellor’s autumn statement – the second big set piece of Mr. Osborne’s parliamentary year. Usually, the “Omnishambles” budget of 2012 apart, he gets a good initial reaction and the betting markets respond accordingly. So I’ve developed…

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The good people of Oldham West could also be electing a future LAB leader possibly the next one

The good people of Oldham West could also be electing a future LAB leader possibly the next one

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@CllrJimMcMahon – the man LAB hopes will win Oldham W by-election a week on Thursday pic.twitter.com/EjscvXWDMz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 24, 2015 Expect big things for Jim McMahon OBE if he wins the by-election One thing that’s puzzled me about the Oldham by-election is why the leader of Oldham council put himself forward as candidate. He’s already a big figure within the party and, indeed, was being widely tipped as a serious contender for the second biggest elected post…

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Statement’s like McCluskey’s on Premier League managers are usually the sign of trouble

Statement’s like McCluskey’s on Premier League managers are usually the sign of trouble

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via @paulwaugh UNITE boss McCluskey says Corbyn has his "full support". Lucky Jez's not a Premier league manager pic.twitter.com/jKdm5pN4aD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 24, 2015 Union acion could be what does for Corbyn in the end It’s been another day dominated by Mr. Corbyn and the Tories are getting an easy ride over the bullying scandal that has been developing. Earlier UNITE boss, McCluskey, was reported as saying that the LAB leader would have to improve. Tonight there’s been…

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Ex-LAB MP Nick Palmer says “Don’t underestimate the interest that MPs have in survival”

Ex-LAB MP Nick Palmer says “Don’t underestimate the interest that MPs have in survival”

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How do modern political parties cope with change? The current turbulence in Labour is part of a wider picture seen across the West. Simmering dissatisfaction with established parties and politicians is generating support for iconoclastic individuals and movements in nearly every country to an extent not seen for a long time. From Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump to Syriza, Podemos, UKIP, the AfD, the FN and numerous others, merely being not part of the familiar establishment attracts a wave of interest. In Britain, it’s…

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You can get 11/8 on Corbyn being leader at general election. Why I’m not tempted

You can get 11/8 on Corbyn being leader at general election. Why I’m not tempted

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Ladbroke make it longer than evens, 11/8, that Corbyn will still be leader at GE2020 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 24, 2015 The detail on YouGov/Times LAB selectorate poll. pic.twitter.com/TICSqT35Iz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 24, 2015 V interesting on Labour turmoil from @stephenkb (who correctly predicted Jeremy Corbyn win) https://t.co/RskLxyvc8c pic.twitter.com/ZRcRYZI1m1 — Sophy Ridge (@SophyRidgeSky) November 24, 2015 Great from @hopisen 71% of Corbyn voters don't mind if their policies stop them winning elections. pic.twitter.com/7SSHSp9ybV — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)…

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As the national polls show LAB’s plight getting worse party members remain very loyal to their new leader

As the national polls show LAB’s plight getting worse party members remain very loyal to their new leader

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The key points from tonight's Times YouGov poll of LAB members & leadership voters pic.twitter.com/2htYOGi2uA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 23, 2015 How the Times is covering its LAB members poll pic.twitter.com/1NL6rVOWl3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 23, 2015 It’s hard to see how at this stage Corbyn can be ousted

Do 1 in 5 British Muslims really ‘sympathise with Jihadis’?

Do 1 in 5 British Muslims really ‘sympathise with Jihadis’?

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Keiran Pedley looks at this morning’s front page of The Sun and argues that we should always check the small print when reading opinion polls. As someone that has spent most of his professional life reading opinion polls I have always enjoyed this scene from Yes Minister where Sir Humphrey explains to Bernard how to rig an opinion poll. It’s a funny scene but does demonstrate a pretty important point that all pollsters know – opinion poll results are often as much about how…

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