But what happens if they do? It could have been very different. Had Bernie Sanders won the caucuses in Iowa and Nevada, Hillary Clinton’s campaign would now be in disarray. Rather than today’s South Carolina primary being a foretaste of the likely landslide she’ll win on Super Tuesday, it would be seen as a must-win vote simply to remain in the race; Super Tuesday itself would most likely have been a closer contest building off the back of a hat-trick…
Key: Death Resignation Kingswinford North and Wall Heath on Dudley (Con defence) Result: Conservative 1,456 (54% +11%), Labour 934 (35% +8%), United Kingdom Independence Party 262 (10% -17%), Green Party 52 (2% -1%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 522 (19%) on a swing of 1.5% from Labour to Conservative St. James on Dudley (Lab defence) Result: Labour 847 (46% +1%), United Kingdom Independence Party 554 (30% +2%), Conservative 427 (23% -1%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 293 (16%)…
It is hard to argue that this won’t be the November line-up The dramatic developments over the past week in the EU referendum have somewhat sidelined what has been the most crucial week so far in the WH2016 battles for the Democratic and Republican party nominations. In the betting both Hillary and Trump have seen their odds tighten sharply following the latest state contests. Last Saturday Clinton squeezed a victory over Bernie Sanders in the Nevada caucuses while Trump had another hugely emphatic…
…….. and now for something completely different 2016 Oscars. The most competitive year I can remember and an unusual one. Nine Irish nominations in the major categories though none for blacks which has led to Spike Lee calling for ‘a blackout’. Also interesting though unlikely to cut much ice here 12 times nominated ‘The Revenant’ was the highest grossing film of all time in Russia. (WARNING: Just a reminder of my track record. I’m the one who in 2005 said…
Key: Death Resignation Kingswinford North and Wall Heath (Con defence) and St. James (Lab defence) on Dudley Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 38, Conservatives 25, United Kingdom Independence Party 7, Independent 1, Green Party 1 (Labour majority of 4) Result of ward at last election Kingswinford North and Wall Heath (2014): Conservative 1,704 (43%), United Kingdom Independence Party 1,090 (27%), Labour 1,071 (27%), Green Party 131 (3%) Candidates duly nominated: Lynn Boleyn (Lab), Mick Forsyth (UKIP), Edward…
YouGov US Polling on reaction to President Trump https://t.co/r522Q3GrQV pic.twitter.com/op4Q1IGQG5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 25, 2016
In this week’s episode Keiran Pedley interviews UKIP MP Douglas Carswell about his political journey, thoughts on the EU referendum campaign, the future of UKIP and whether he might rejoin the Conservatives in the future. At the beginning of the show Keiran also gives his brief analysis on Trump’s win in Nevada and recent polling of Labour Party members. You can follow Keiran at @keiranpedley
Phone polls trounced online ones in the 2011 AV vote I get asked several a week at the moment for a view on online phone divide that we’ve seen over the EURef. Which is better I’m asked and I’m reluctant to come down on one side or the other. At the general election the final polls from both modes were in the same ball park although during the official campaign period the phone firms were much more like to report…