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For someone who’s got reputation for laziness Cameron’s running rings round the outers

7/3/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Alastair Meeks on the high energy PM Every politician is viewed in caricature.Â David Cameron is no exception.Â Journalists routinely write of him being like Flashman, of being lazy, of being an essay crisis Prime Minister who doesn’t do detail unless his back is against a wall, of being a man of no particular vision beyond keeping things steady as she goes. It is very hard to square this caricature with the David Cameron who has been working towards the…

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Cyclefreeâ€™s analysis of the Remain campaign

6/3/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Picture credit: Britain Stronger In Facebook page While there has rightly been analysis of an often incoherent Leave campaign, perhaps some scrutiny is needed of some common Remain tropes â€“ those focusing on why we should stay rather than why we should not Leave – and what they might mean for the referendum result and the UKâ€™s longer term relationship with its European neighbours. 1. We will be in a reformed EU and can continue with further reform. This is…

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Why you shouldn’t assume a Brexiter will be Cameron’s successor

6/3/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

59% of Tory members back Brexit but only 20% of Â members consider backing a Brexiter as theÂ most important criteria in deciding who should be the next leader of the Tory party. The Tories will back someone who is seen as an election winner over a Brexiter. When the Tory Party starts obsessing about the European Union, it is the political equivalent of putting an unlimited supply of laxatives into the monkey house. Excrement starts getting flung in all directions, we…

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Cruz wins the most delegates tonight but it looks like tonight was goodnight Rubio Saturday

6/3/2016 TSE Comments 0 Comment

It looks like the GOP establishment plan to stop Trump, as embodied by Mitt Romney, might be working, but is it too late? Summary of tonight's results. GOP: 2 states apiece for Trump & Cruz. Cruz gets the most delegates. pic.twitter.com/1qPi0H2Lt0 — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 6, 2016 After Super Tuesday Trump moved to an 83% implied chance on Betfair for nomination. Now a 64% implied chance pic.twitter.com/0eo6Tf6u70 — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 6, 2016 A fortnight ago Cruz was 70 on…

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Early indications are that Trump not going to have all his own way in the 4 states deciding today

5/3/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Real Clear Politics In Kansas he’s doing much worse than the polls Trump was 6% up in final Kansas poll. With 65% of votes counted he's 27% behind. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 5, 2016 After Super Tuesday Trump moved to an 83% chance on Betfair for nomination. Latest price 53% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 5, 2016

Holyrood 2016: the SNPâ€™s hegemony continues

5/3/2016 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

But how bad will it get for Scottish Labour? You wouldnâ€™t know if you only received your news from the London media but there are three general elections in the UK this year. Voters will go to the polls in May to elect new Assemblies in Wales and Northern Ireland and to the Scottish Parliament (as well as a London mayor, various lesser mayors, a bumper set of councillors and PCCs across England and Wales â€“ itâ€™s probably the biggest…

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Don’t expect anything to come of the GOP’s establishment effort to stop Trump

4/3/2016 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

David Herdson on the US race The next rounds take place this weekend with four states electing delegates for the Republicans (Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Maine) and four for the Democrats (Kansas,Louisiana,Maine and Nebraska). Much has been made of the apparent desire of the GOP establishment to stop Trump. Donâ€™t expect it to come to anything. The fact that there are two competing and opposing strategies to stop the Donald should reveal that both are inherently weak. The first strategy,…

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Local By-Election Results : March 3rd 2016

4/3/2016 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Bloomfield (Lab defence) on Blackpool Result: Labour 450 (58% +13%), Conservative 150 (19% -1%), United Kingdom Independence Party 118 (15% -10%), Green Party 32 (4% -5%), Liberal Democrat 31 (4%, no candidate in 2015) Labour HOLD with a majority of 300 (39%) on a swing of 7% from Conservative to Labour Alderholt (Con defence) on East Dorset Result: Conservative 384 (47% -16%), Liberal Democrat 376 (46%, no candidate in 2015), Labour 49 (6%, no candidate in 2015) Conservative HOLD with…

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