Polling analysis: UKIP supporters make up the biggest group of those wanting OUT, LAB ones of those wanting to stay

Polling analysis: UKIP supporters make up the biggest group of those wanting OUT, LAB ones of those wanting to stay

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Tory voters are very much split between the two I don’t think this form of analysis has been done so far in the campaign – where are the supporters of either side coming from. What surprised me was that the Tory general election support is almost totally split between the two sides and is not the dominant segment in either. Turnout is clearly going to be important and whether the Tory vote remain broadly split will stay as it is…

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Missing the point. How the Remain campaign is failing

Missing the point. How the Remain campaign is failing

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Alastair Meeks on the Remain campaign With roughly 100 days to go to the referendum, the Remain campaign is no doubt feeling cautiously optimistic.  While the renegotiation of terms has not inspired, Remain has had a much better air war than Leave to date.  David Cameron has vigorously warned of the manifold dangers that he has identified if Britain should leave the EU.  A stately procession of the great and the good is being lined up to walk past us,…

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Tonight’s local by-elections – a CON defence in Theresa May’s constituency and a LD one in Tim Farron’s

Tonight’s local by-elections – a CON defence in Theresa May’s constituency and a LD one in Tim Farron’s

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Kendal, Strickland and Fell (Lib Dem defence) on Cumbria Result of council at last election (2013): Labour 35, Conservatives 26, Liberal Democrat 16, Independents 7 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 8) Result of ward at last election (2013): Liberal Democrat 980 (52%), Labour 506 (27%), Conservative 191 (10%), United Kingdom Independence Party 186 (10%), Trade Unionist and Socialist 15 (1%) Candidates duly nominated: Virginia Branney (Lab), Andy Mason (Green), Harry Taylor (Con), Peter Thornton (Lib Dem), David Walker (UKIP)…

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Just out: This week’s Politicalbetting/Polling Matters TV show with guests Alastair Meeks and Shadsy from Ladbrokes

Just out: This week’s Politicalbetting/Polling Matters TV show with guests Alastair Meeks and Shadsy from Ladbrokes

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Edition March 9th 2016: Brexit, Boris and who is going to be CON leader Welcome to the latest pilot where Keiran Pedley and myself welcomed two very familiar figures – Alastair Meeks and Matthew Shaddick of Ladbrokes. There’s so much going on at the moment and so much political betting taking place that is becoming hard to know where to start. This latest edition looks mostly at the UK. All the shows that we’ve done can be found here. Mike…

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Professor Michael Thrasher introduces The Elections Centre

Professor Michael Thrasher introduces The Elections Centre

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Google   When Rallings and Thrasher established the Elections Centre in the early 1980s the principal aim was to collect and publish local election results in the same way that F.W.S. Craig was covering the parliamentary equivalent. In establishing the website, www.electionscentre.co.uk, the aim is to provide easier access for a wide variety of users to the huge amount of data compiled over the intervening years. Many readers of Political Betting will already be acquainted with the site but a glimpse of future plans can…

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As doctors stage their 3rd strike Ipsos-MORI finds that they are still getting strong public support

As doctors stage their 3rd strike Ipsos-MORI finds that they are still getting strong public support

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57% blame the Government 11% the doctors With thousands of operations being cancelled because of the latest doctors strike public support for them is as high as it was for the first two strikes in January and February, according to new polling from Ipsos MORI. The survey of adults in England finds the same proportion (65%) supporting junior doctors strikes as for the previous round of action in February (66%) – as long as emergency care is provided. Opposition to…

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