More polling’s due out on Corbyn’s failure with the most crucial voting group of all – older women

More polling’s due out on Corbyn’s failure with the most crucial voting group of all – older women

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Why Corbyn could be an even bigger loser than the headline figures suggest A gender problem for Corbyn? Far fewer women tell YouGov that he should lead LAB at GE2020 than men pic.twitter.com/TObsy7ibLU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2016 And the problem is most dramatic with older women – see my piece for @ayeshahazarika 's @ProgressOnline out soon https://t.co/2ObL5dRZqI — Deborah Mattinson (@debmattinson) March 8, 2016 Last night I Tweeted the above panel from new YouGov polling. It shows…

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The EURef betting numbers remain solid for IN

The EURef betting numbers remain solid for IN

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Scroll down for charts and more data The above graphic created by Michael Dent is updated every 20 minutes and show the latest Betfair betting price on the June 23rd EU referendum. The default position is to show odds as a percentage but punters might like to click the DEC odds tab, What is striking is how little variation there has been which, of course, is a broad reflection of the polling. The March round of phone polls could make…

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The blue on blue fight is making the EURef seem like an all-CON affair and that could impact on turnout

The blue on blue fight is making the EURef seem like an all-CON affair and that could impact on turnout

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Donald Brind on the turnout worries within the Labour IN Campaign Senior women in the Labour party are becoming increasingly concerned that the EU referendum could be lost because women stay away from the polls on June 23rd. They see a campaign dominated by male voices and polluted by noise from the increasingly vicious Blue on Blue attacks. Labour pro-Europeans fear the arcane battle within the Tory tribe will depress interest in the campaign among Labour voters and especially among…

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For someone who’s got reputation for laziness Cameron’s running rings round the outers

For someone who’s got reputation for laziness Cameron’s running rings round the outers

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Alastair Meeks on the high energy PM Every politician is viewed in caricature.  David Cameron is no exception.  Journalists routinely write of him being like Flashman, of being lazy, of being an essay crisis Prime Minister who doesn’t do detail unless his back is against a wall, of being a man of no particular vision beyond keeping things steady as she goes. It is very hard to square this caricature with the David Cameron who has been working towards the…

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Cyclefree’s analysis of the Remain campaign

Cyclefree’s analysis of the Remain campaign

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Picture credit: Britain Stronger In Facebook page While there has rightly been analysis of an often incoherent Leave campaign, perhaps some scrutiny is needed of some common Remain tropes – those focusing on why we should stay rather than why we should not Leave – and what they might mean for the referendum result and the UK’s longer term relationship with its European neighbours. 1. We will be in a reformed EU and can continue with further reform. This is…

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Why you shouldn’t assume a Brexiter will be Cameron’s successor

Why you shouldn’t assume a Brexiter will be Cameron’s successor

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59% of Tory members back Brexit but only 20% of  members consider backing a Brexiter as the most important criteria in deciding who should be the next leader of the Tory party. The Tories will back someone who is seen as an election winner over a Brexiter. When the Tory Party starts obsessing about the European Union, it is the political equivalent of putting an unlimited supply of laxatives into the monkey house. Excrement starts getting flung in all directions, we…

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Cruz wins the most delegates tonight but it looks like tonight was goodnight Rubio Saturday

Cruz wins the most delegates tonight but it looks like tonight was goodnight Rubio Saturday

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It looks like the GOP establishment plan to stop Trump, as embodied by Mitt Romney, might be working, but is it too late? Summary of tonight's results. GOP: 2 states apiece for Trump & Cruz. Cruz gets the most delegates. pic.twitter.com/1qPi0H2Lt0 — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 6, 2016 After Super Tuesday Trump moved to an 83% implied chance on Betfair for nomination. Now a 64% implied chance pic.twitter.com/0eo6Tf6u70 — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 6, 2016 A fortnight ago Cruz was 70 on…

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Early indications are that Trump not going to have all his own way in the 4 states deciding today

Early indications are that Trump not going to have all his own way in the 4 states deciding today

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Real Clear Politics In Kansas he’s doing much worse than the polls Trump was 6% up in final Kansas poll. With 65% of votes counted he's 27% behind. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 5, 2016 After Super Tuesday Trump moved to an 83% chance on Betfair for nomination. Latest price 53% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 5, 2016