What the Chancellor should do if he wants the top job The last few months have not been good for George Osborne. When he rose to give the last budget in July, he looked like a man ready to take over the top job. Following the general election he had been appointed First Secretary of State, recognising his place as second among equals. He had carved out a distinct policy agenda of his own within government on the northern powerhouse. …
Although it has been hugely overshadowed by the EURef the London Mayoral election on May 5th is proving to be an interesting battle. Thanks to Mark Hopkins and his NoJam widget we’ve prepared another PB Prize competition. Simple predict the first round shares for the main parties and the overall winner. Remember that the election gives voters two choices. A first choice and what is effectively a second one which only comes into play if their first choice is not…
New YouGov London Mayoral poll had Sadiq Khan maintaining 7% lead pic.twitter.com/XBx4DwFphO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2016 Excluding the don't knows the YouGov London Mayoral polls hasSadiq 45%Zac 36%A 9% lead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2016 This latest poll follows the Opinium survey for the Evening Standard last week that had Khan with a 5% lead on first preferences which rose to a 10% margin over Zac when second preferences were allocated. Both YouGov and Opinium…
The CON voter split will be crucial One of the best non-voting intention polling indicators to the referendum could well be the question above used by ComRes at the weekend in its IoS Sunday Mirror online poll. Inevitably the battle is being presented in the media as a mighty clash between the Prime Minister and the Mayor and the question of who is trusted most to act in the interests of Britain is central. Overall but only by a whisker…
On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran looks back at a busy week in U.S. politics and updates us on the latest results from this weekend and fallout from Trump’s cancelled rally in Chicago. Keiran also argues why he thinks a Trump-Cruz ticket is more likely than the GOP establishment choosing a Kasich, Rubio or Ryan. Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, could Sanders supporters being seen to disrupt Trump campaign events help his campaign and could President Obama’s improving approval…
On Wednesday George Osborne will deliver his eighth budget and I’m starting to wonder if this will be Osborne’s final budget, for the following reasons, Were Leave to win, I expect Cameron to cease being Tory leader, and a new leader, assuming it isn’t Osborne, will want someone else as Chancellor. If the new Leader is Osborne, that will also end Osborne’s tenure  as Chancellor. Even if Remain wins, Cameron is expected to conduct a ‘reconciliation reshuffle’ If it is a…
Why David Cameron and Remain should be hoping Labour does really well in May’s elections. A Labour leadership contest at the same time as the referendum campaign could favour Leave. Whilst it might seem like the EU referendum is solely an internal Tory party matter, if David Cameron wants Remain to win, he’s going to need Labour voters to turn out for Remain. David Cameron may not be the best person to get Labour voters to come out and vote…
CON 38%-3 LAB 29%+2 LD 7%-2 UKIP 16%+1 GRN 4%+1 The Boris versus Dave findings An encouraging finding for Cameron and one which could be crucial that CON voters are twice as likely to say they trust the PM more than the Mayor to do what is best for Britain (54% say they trust Cameron more v 27% who trust Johnson more). EURef findings but no voting intentions ComResRes voting intwntion numbers have in all case but one come from…