Winner London Mayoral Election May 2016 This could be tighter than the polls Like many PBers I’m sitting on bets at 33/1 placed in March 2013 on Sadiq Khan to be next Mayor of London. This was on the basis of a tip from Henry G Manson who argued that EdM’s then appointment of the Tooting MP as Shadow Minister for London would play a big part in him securing the nomination. And so it turned out. He’s now up…
Thanks to PB’s new odds widgets provided by Liberty Tech we are now able to track the amount of betting there has been on selected political markets. This is one of the lines of data that’s available in our new live odds tool and does put things into perspective We might have all been talking about Osbo’s leadership chances yesterday but virtually nobody was ready to have a punt. Of course there is a big range of other bookmakers out…
Discussion and insight on the political issues of the week The latest PB/PM TV Show is just out and rather than examine the detail of the budget seeks to look at its impact on the EURef and, of course, Osbo’s leadership ambitions. Also, of course, there’s a look at the latest “Super Tuesday” primaries and whether Hillary versus Trump is now a foregone conclusion. Keiran Pedley and I were joined by pollster, Rob Vance, and Asa Bennett of the Daily…
The measures designed for a REMAIN outcome Perhaps the most astute post budget observation was contained in this Tweet from the political academic Tim Bale. Which voters are most likely to favour staying in the EU? Comfortable middle classes & young people. So who does best out of #Budget2016? — Tim Bale (@ProfTimBale) March 16, 2016 Perhaps more than anybody Osborne’s career is very much tied up with REMAIN winning the referendum in three months time and who could blame…
How Osborne's YouGov "well-badly" ratings have slipped since November. pic.twitter.com/1qRYOBQjOQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 16, 2016 And he’s no longer favourite to succeed Cameron
Trump v Clinton – RCP Polling averagehttps://t.co/cEPwWzAzjh pic.twitter.com/chsHtcIIwx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 16, 2016 After last week’s embarrassment in Michigan the latest round of primaries saw Clinton win in all five states at stake and now looks like the presumptive nominee. The crucial swing state of Ohio which Sanders had been threatening to take went to Clinton by a clear margin. Trump’s road to his party’s nomination looks a little less clear following Kasich’s clear victory in his home…
358 delegates at stake tonight in the GOP race Tonight’s a massive one in the fight for the Republican nomination. There are five big primaries with a total of 358 delegates at stake. To put that into context Trump currently leads Cruz by 460 to 370 and 1237 are required for victory. The states are:- Florida (99 delegates) North Carolina (72) Illinois (69) Ohio (66) Missouri (52). What makes this particularly interesting is that from today states can operate on…
A week ago LEAVE was a 29% chance on Betfair. Now a 33% one pic.twitter.com/QvRQ7s0aJy — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 15, 2016 https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/709666678620233728 "We Have 100 Days to Take Back Control of Our Country" – #GO's Co-Founder @VotePursglove https://t.co/O4aWW29FwU pic.twitter.com/RZlDqsJlpc — Leave.EU (@LeaveEUOfficial) March 15, 2016 Updated table of #EURef polls which use the wording on the ballot pic.twitter.com/GpgRCSRBUZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 15, 2016