A budget for the referendum and Osborne’s career ambitions

A budget for the referendum and Osborne’s career ambitions

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The measures designed for a REMAIN outcome Perhaps the most astute post budget observation was contained in this Tweet from the political academic Tim Bale. Which voters are most likely to favour staying in the EU? Comfortable middle classes & young people. So who does best out of #Budget2016? — Tim Bale (@ProfTimBale) March 16, 2016 Perhaps more than anybody Osborne’s career is very much tied up with REMAIN winning the referendum in three months time and who could blame…

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It’s looking increasingly like Clinton versus Trump

It’s looking increasingly like Clinton versus Trump

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Trump v Clinton – RCP Polling averagehttps://t.co/cEPwWzAzjh pic.twitter.com/chsHtcIIwx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 16, 2016 After last week’s embarrassment in Michigan the latest round of primaries saw Clinton win in all five states at stake and now looks like the presumptive nominee. The crucial swing state of Ohio which Sanders had been threatening to take went to Clinton by a clear margin. Trump’s road to his party’s nomination looks a little less clear following Kasich’s clear victory in his home…

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After tonight the Republican race could be down to just Trump versus Cruz

After tonight the Republican race could be down to just Trump versus Cruz

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358 delegates at stake tonight in the GOP race Tonight’s a massive one in the fight for the Republican nomination. There are five big primaries with a total of 358 delegates at stake. To put that into context Trump currently leads Cruz by 460 to 370 and 1237 are required for victory. The states are:- Florida (99 delegates) North Carolina (72) Illinois (69) Ohio (66) Missouri (52). What makes this particularly interesting is that from today states can operate on…

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100 days to go till the referendum and the betting moves a bit closer

100 days to go till the referendum and the betting moves a bit closer

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A week ago LEAVE was a 29% chance on Betfair. Now a 33% one pic.twitter.com/QvRQ7s0aJy — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 15, 2016 https://twitter.com/StrongerIn/status/709666678620233728 "We Have 100 Days to Take Back Control of Our Country" – #GO's Co-Founder @VotePursglove https://t.co/O4aWW29FwU pic.twitter.com/RZlDqsJlpc — Leave.EU (@LeaveEUOfficial) March 15, 2016 Updated table of #EURef polls which use the wording on the ballot pic.twitter.com/GpgRCSRBUZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 15, 2016

Alastair Meeks says George Osborne’s star is dimming

Alastair Meeks says George Osborne’s star is dimming

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What the Chancellor should do if he wants the top job The last few months have not been good for George Osborne.  When he rose to give the last budget in July, he looked like a man ready to take over the top job.  Following the general election he had been appointed First Secretary of State, recognising his place as second among equals.  He had carved out a distinct policy agenda of his own within government on the northern powerhouse. …

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You’ve seen the latest London Mayoral poll – now predict the election in the PB Prize Competition

You’ve seen the latest London Mayoral poll – now predict the election in the PB Prize Competition

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Although it has been hugely overshadowed by the EURef the London Mayoral election on May 5th is proving to be an interesting battle. Thanks to Mark Hopkins and his NoJam widget we’ve prepared another PB Prize competition. Simple predict the first round shares for the main parties and the overall winner. Remember that the election gives voters two choices. A first choice and what is effectively a second one which only comes into play if their first choice is not…

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YouGov London Mayoral poll has Sadiq with 7% lead

YouGov London Mayoral poll has Sadiq with 7% lead

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New YouGov London Mayoral poll had Sadiq Khan maintaining 7% lead pic.twitter.com/XBx4DwFphO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2016 Excluding the don't knows the YouGov London Mayoral polls hasSadiq 45%Zac 36%A 9% lead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2016 This latest poll follows the Opinium survey for the Evening Standard last week that had Khan with a 5% lead on first preferences which rose to a 10% margin over Zac when second preferences were allocated. Both YouGov and Opinium…

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