The New Zealand flag referendum goes strongly for the status quo: A pointer for EURef

The New Zealand flag referendum goes strongly for the status quo: A pointer for EURef

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Another referendum where the status quo wins. New Zealand votes to keep current flag. Implications for BREXIT? https://t.co/1nrhu8EwYp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 24, 2016 One of the massive challenges for LEAVE is that there’s a strong history in elections from many countries of the status quo prevailing. We saw that in Scotland in September 2014 as well as in the UK EC referendum of 1975. We have also seen it to a very striking degree when voters in English…

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This week’s PB/Polling Matters TV Show on Trump, Brussels, Osborne and that LAB poll lead

This week’s PB/Polling Matters TV Show on Trump, Brussels, Osborne and that LAB poll lead

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Serious political conversation for those seriously interested in politics After a week dominated by the tragedy in Brussels the PB/PM TV team look at the political impact of that as well as Trump’s growing haul of delegates, Osborne and that unique polling event – the Labour polling lead. As ever the show is also available as an audio podcast version Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

REMAIN lead drops to lowest level yet in ComRes phone poll for ITV

REMAIN lead drops to lowest level yet in ComRes phone poll for ITV

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The ComRes press release states: Remain” leads “Leave” by seven points according to the latest ComRes poll for ITV News (fieldwork conducted over the weekend, before the events in Brussels). The seven point lead is the lowest recorded in a ComRes telephone poll since the General Election, however, it is in line with the eight point lead in the February ComRes / ITV News poll (although another ComRes poll for the Daily Mail had shown the Remain lead rising to…

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Sanders runs Hillary pretty close in latest round of primaries

Sanders runs Hillary pretty close in latest round of primaries

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Trump wins one loses one The results from the latest three primaries are almost all in with victories for Clinton and Trump in the biggest, Arizona, and for Cruz and Sanders in Utah. In the very low Democratic caucus in Idaho Sanders came out on top. The Clinton campaign has made it clear that it ways to focus on the coming big battle against Trump rather than the irritating ongoing squabble with Bernie Sanders. Results like this latest batch are…

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With sentiment edging away from REMAIN it’s been the biggest betting day yet on the EURef

With sentiment edging away from REMAIN it’s been the biggest betting day yet on the EURef

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REMAIN drops 5 points on the biggest #EURef betting day yet.On Betfair alone £244,108 bets matched in 24 hours pic.twitter.com/vmCM7koRoW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 22, 2016 Whether this has been driven by Brussels or not is unclrear but there’s been a huge, in political betting terms, of betting on the EU Referendum. With nearly £0.25m of bets matched on Betfair alone in 24 hours the this has almost certainly been the biggest day yet for referendum gambling. It seems…

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Assessing the mood amongst Labour pragmatists

Assessing the mood amongst Labour pragmatists

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Ex-MP Nick Palmer on a non-Corbynite Labour focus group For friendship and nostalgia, I had a dinner last week with 14 veteran campaigners who have mostly been with me in every campaign since 1997. Coincidentally or not, I think I was the only one at the table who had voted for Jeremy Corbyn. The others are pragmatic Labour campaigners who fight every election to win, and turned a safe Tory seat in 1992 (16% margin) into a perpetual marginal. They’d voted…

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This morning’s Brussels attacks are a terrible tragedy not something on which to make a political point

This morning’s Brussels attacks are a terrible tragedy not something on which to make a political point

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How a Telegraph columnist responded to the Brussels attacks. pic.twitter.com/akuhYcObTu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 22, 2016 Clearly the news today has been totally dominated by the attacks in Brussels but, like many, I was somewhat aghast by the above Tweet by a Telegraph columnist. This happened only hours ago and we still don’t know how many died or were injured. To try to argue that this is for or against BREXIT is simply beside the point. How would we…

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Alastair Meeks: How the Eurosceptics are destroying the Conservative party

Alastair Meeks: How the Eurosceptics are destroying the Conservative party

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Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.  By that definition, the Eurosceptic right of the Conservative party is insane. It’s not as if we haven’t been here before.  In the mid-1990s, a cell of dissident Conservative MPs contrived to make government with a small majority a living hell for their nominal party superiors, challenging the government on a succession of grievances (real and imagined) relating to Britain’s membership of the EU.  By the…

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