Cameron’s first policy resignation: IDS quits

Cameron’s first policy resignation: IDS quits

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But it’s Osborne in the firing line There are two easy assumptions that need dismissing about IDS’s resignation yesterday. Firstly, this is not a power gambit on Duncan Smith’s part; and secondly, his going is not to do with Europe. The two in fact tie together. There could be – and perhaps already is – an explanation that runs thus: IDS has really quit because he is upset by how the Remain side is conducting the European debate; in leaving…

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Two CON losses out of three in latest council by-elections

Two CON losses out of three in latest council by-elections

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Aylsham (Con defence) on Broadland Result: Liberal Democrat 829 (48% +17%), Conservative 654 (38% +6%), Labour 243 (14% -8%) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 175 (10%) on a swing of 5.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat Ashby de la Launde and Cranwell (Con defence) on North Kesteven Result: Lincolnshire Independent 457 (56%, no candidate in 2015), Conservative 296 (36% -31%), Liberal Democrat 69 (8%, no candidate in 2015) Lincolnshire Independent GAIN from Conservative with a majority…

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Referendum polling and betting update

Referendum polling and betting update

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Note that the table now includes polls where the actual 16 word ballot referendum question is not the one that is put. Ipsos-MORI has been using split samples to ask two questions each month. The first with its long-term question ad the second with the actual wording on the ballot. The latter produces better results to REMAIN. Also the new ORB phone poll for the Telegraph is not asking the standard question so, as can be seen, I am now…

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LAB in lead for first time since last May as the Tories pay the price for being split

LAB in lead for first time since last May as the Tories pay the price for being split

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YouGov post budget LAB 34 CON 33 LD 6 UKIP 16 Osborne's own ratings as Chancellor now back to quite strongly negative (bad job 46% good job 23%). 51% think the gvt handling economy badly — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) March 17, 2016 More detail from Times story on its YouGov poll pic.twitter.com/hXp0reb6l8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 17, 2016 The YouGov LAB lead poll follows Monday's ICM phone survey which had LAB & CON level pegging — Mike Smithson…

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The first post budget electoral tests: Three CON Local By-Election defences

The first post budget electoral tests: Three CON Local By-Election defences

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Aylsham (Con defence) on Broadland Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 43, Liberal Democrats 4 (Conservative majority of 39) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,588, 1,513, 1,125 (32%) Liberal Democrats 1,521, 1,065, 926 (31%) Labour 1,082 (22%) United Kingdom Independence Party 719, 658 (15%) Candidates duly nominated: Christopher Jenner (Lab), Steve Riley (Lib Dem), Hal Turkmen (Con) Ashby de la Launde and Cranwell (Con defence) on North Kesteven Result of council at…

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Zac Goldsmith’s odds have eased to the point where he becomes a value bet

Zac Goldsmith’s odds have eased to the point where he becomes a value bet

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Winner London Mayoral Election May 2016 This could be tighter than the polls Like many PBers I’m sitting on bets at 33/1 placed in March 2013 on Sadiq Khan to be next Mayor of London. This was on the basis of a tip from Henry G Manson who argued that EdM’s then appointment of the Tooting MP as Shadow Minister for London would play a big part in him securing the nomination. And so it turned out. He’s now up…

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Where political gamblers are risking their money at the moment

Where political gamblers are risking their money at the moment

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Thanks to PB’s new odds widgets provided by Liberty Tech we are now able to track the amount of betting there has been on selected political markets. This is one of the lines of data that’s available in our new live odds tool and does put things into perspective We might have all been talking about Osbo’s leadership chances yesterday but virtually nobody was ready to have a punt. Of course there is a big range of other bookmakers out…

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Tonight’s PB/Polling Matters TV Show: WH2016, the impact of the budget on Osborne’s ambitions and the latest on BREXIT

Tonight’s PB/Polling Matters TV Show: WH2016, the impact of the budget on Osborne’s ambitions and the latest on BREXIT

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Discussion and insight on the political issues of the week The latest PB/PM TV Show is just out and rather than examine the detail of the budget seeks to look at its impact on the EURef and, of course, Osbo’s leadership ambitions. Also, of course, there’s a look at the latest “Super Tuesday” primaries and whether Hillary versus Trump is now a foregone conclusion. Keiran Pedley and I were joined by pollster, Rob Vance, and Asa Bennett of the Daily…

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