The disintegrating establishment

The disintegrating establishment

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In 2010, Britain was being wrestled over by two parties competing to portray themselves to the public as the natural party of government.  In his first conference speech, David Cameron returned repeatedly to the theme of “substance”.  He told his party: “Real substance is about taking time to think things through, not trotting out easy answers that people might want to hear.  It’s about sticking to your guns.  It’s about character, judgement, and consistency.  It’s about policy, yes.  But it’s…

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A betting market on the size of Donald Trump’s non flaccid manhood sums up the weirdness of the GOP nomination race

A betting market on the size of Donald Trump’s non flaccid manhood sums up the weirdness of the GOP nomination race

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Will Trump rise to the occasion? Betting on the Republican nominee and related markets has been a mix of the interesting, surreal and downright bizarre. The betting overreaction to Marco Rubio finishing third in Iowa and becoming the favourite for the nomination was a particular highlight and profitable for many. But the GOP nomination contest has been marked by a certain viciousness between the candidates, with Donald Trump giving Ted Cruz the epithet Lyin’ Ted Cruz, whilst the cherry on…

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Sean Fear on what to expect on June 23rd

Sean Fear on what to expect on June 23rd

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Looking at the detail by local authority area Yougov have produced a very useful map that ranks local authority areas across Great Britain by levels of Euroscepticism. . Euroscepticism is not necessarily identical to supporting Brexit, but one can assume that there is a close correlation between the two. What does the map show us, and how does it compare to polling data? 1. There is a clear correlation between voting for right wing parties (Conservatives and UKIP) and support…

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How Port Talbot could give us a pointer to the EURef

How Port Talbot could give us a pointer to the EURef

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Will UKIP fare well in Wales? In the hot-house of political reporting and comment, individual stories invariably seem more important at the time than they subsequently turn out to be. The future of the Port Talbot steel works is likely to be one such case. Although the closure or even mothballing of the plant would be disastrous for the town and the people who live and work there, for most of Wales – never mind the country beyond – the…

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As Trump’s favourability ratings get worse there are now suggestions that he doesn’t want the nomination after all

As Trump’s favourability ratings get worse there are now suggestions that he doesn’t want the nomination after all

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Gaullup polling highlighting Trump's problem with the female half of the electorate. This trend is bad pic.twitter.com/dA5wXJdtQW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 1, 2016 These Ipsos Reuters favourability numbers don't look good for Donald Trump pic.twitter.com/1xKd33iVaR — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 1, 2016 There’s an interesting article by John Fund just out in National Review speculating that really Mr. Trump doesn’t want the nomination and what we are seeing at the moment is what it describes as “self-sabotage”. Fund observes:…

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Why from an ad man’s perspective REMAIN’s absolutely right to go negative

Why from an ad man’s perspective REMAIN’s absolutely right to go negative

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PB’s Roger on the messages with the most potency The multinational Procter and Gamble has long been considered the most effective advertiser in the world. They had one simple formula which they used throughout their product range. They began their ads by showing a problem which was followed by a demonstration of how and why their product was the most effective way of dealing with it. ‘Bad breath…….so no one wants to talk to you?’ ‘Don’t worry help is on it’s…

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Tonight’s local by-elections saw

Tonight’s local by-elections saw

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Moriah (Lab defence) on Caerphilly Result of council at last election (2012) : Labour 50, Plaid Cymru 20, Independents 3 (Labour majority of 27) Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected Labour 698, 543 (54%) Plaid Cymru 420 (30%) Independent 363 (16%) Candidates duly nominated:Peter Bailie (Ind), Mervyn Diggle (Ind), Nigel Godfrey (Con), Ian Gorman (UKIP), David Harse (Lab) Embasy with Eastby (Con defence) on Craven Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 20, Independents…

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Wisconsin next Tuesday looks like the last primary where Trump can be stopped

Wisconsin next Tuesday looks like the last primary where Trump can be stopped

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The 42 “winner takes all” delegates look set to be crucial One thing that is becoming increasingly clear in the battle for the Republican nomination is that Donald Trump will need to have enough delegates on the first round by the time he gets to the GOP convention in Cleveland in July. If he fails to have reached the magic threshold 1,237 then all the media talk is of efforts being made at the convention to stop him being the…

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