After a months of very large REMAIN leads in the phone polls we’ve now had three in the past week which are all showing that the race is getting much tighter. Ipsos and ComRes have 8% REMAIN leads while Survation has it at 11% – all very similar. At the same time there hasn’t been much movement in the online polls so we are, perhaps, seeing a level on convergence as we get closer to the day – on 12…
Ipsos-MORI chart of latest referendum phone poll showing remain with 8% lead pic.twitter.com/2nDahRcxE3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 29, 2016 By 48% to 44% those polled by Ipsos-MORI say Cameron should resign if the referendum results in a LEAVE vote pic.twitter.com/MW3dfZQpK2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 29, 2016 The pollster has changed its methodology which I will write about later
Betting on which leader will go first In the picture above are the latest William Hill odds on which of Cameron or Corbyn will stand down first. As can be seen the LAB leader is 4/6 to go first which I think is wrong. Firstly the rules of the Conservative party make it far easier for a challenge to be mounted and, indeed, recent history has seen both Mrs Thatcher and Iain Duncan Smith being voted out by the party’s…
The June 23rd EU Referendum Winner London Mayoral Election May 2016 Next CON leader Scroll down each market to check charts and other market info Politicalbetting/Polling Matters TV Show: Serious discussion for those seriously interested in political outcomes https://t.co/L8URISq49o — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 5, 2016
Z The most affluent are more solidly for IN The above breakdown is from the latest ComRes referendum poll and shows how different socio-economic groups responded to the 16 word referendum question. The pattern shown is very similar in most referendum polls. The more affluent you are, the higher the social class in which you are categorised, the more likely you are to say that you want to remain within the EU. This applies in both phone and online polls…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w21s5r2nTlA Boris Johnson engaging in a level of flip flopping that would make even Andy Burnham blush. pic.twitter.com/nAlfuPrG3a — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 27, 2016 If he wants to be leader, he needs to improve sharply in the next three months just to make the final two of the next Tory leadership contest. Look at the above video from Boris Johnson’s appearance at the Treasury Select Committee earlier on this week, where his past comments/hyperbole on the EU came back to…
Should you be betting on George Osborne going to the Foreign Office? After a sub-optimal fortnight for George Osborne, William Hill have a market up on George Osborne’s next Cabinet job. I think backing the 5/2 on him as next Foreign Secretary might be the best option. I suspect after the referendum (assuming a Remain victory) David Cameron will have a reconciliation reshuffle and move Osborne out of Number 11. Foreign Secretary and Home Secretary are the only jobs that won’t…
< Positive messages might swing votes It’s been widely observed that the referendum campaign is a contest between negatives. Vote Remain because leaving would reduce the country to smouldering ashes, or Vote Leave because remaining would doom us to surrender to Brussels bureaucrats forever. The impression given is that we have a choice of extremely bearish scenarios, with little hope either way. It is generally accepted by professionals that the outcome will be decided by people who have no strong...